Deep Market Thoughts…Today Vs. The Great Depression

Now that the Superbowl is over and we can get back to shortselling and making fun of America. It’s not funny, but true. It was a RIDICULOUSLY BAD January .

Take a look at the chart below (click to enlarge):

today_vs_greatdepression.jpg

First off, history tends to repeat itself.

Second, no one in big media really thinks it’s possible.

Third, we are way softer a nation than back in the 1930’s.

In 11 years of running my hedge fund, I have never owned fewer stocks. I own Amazon, GLD, SLV, FXC and some shekels in a few education stocks which I have no conviction. I am short Capital One, Google (hair trigger), Apple (hair Trigger), Citrix, Best Buy, RTH and some indexes. Nothing really huge on the short side, but I am net short for sure.

I am investing in start-ups and seeing tons of plans, but I am not rushing. I want to buy an office building, but again, no rush.

The Fly has a more poetic rant about the state we are in.

America is a different place, with different people, than back in the old Great Depression days. Back then, people were accustomed to grinding it out, through wars, starvation and staggering unemployment, without welfare. They knew what personal responsibility meant, since a good part of our population was made up of hungry immigrants. Today, the majority of our populace is made up of hamburger eating, teevee watching fat idiots.

If really, really tough times hit America, GD bad, the people would not stand for it. In my spoiled rotten neighborhood, instead of taking up arms like in the old days, these fuckers would bitch, whine, and sue until my local politicians were removed.

However, in poor cities(Detroit, D.C, etc), a different story would play out.

Those fuckers would burn down every building, minus the liquor stores.

Deep down, I keep thinking “somehow, we’ll make it out of this mess.” There have been many periods in American history when the economic system was tested or nearly disintegrated. However, this catastrophe seems to be more severe than all the others, including the Great Depression.

Back then, the country was in the midst of colossal technological advancement, from electricity to cars to airplanes. What do we have now, dumbass iPods or bullshit smart phones?

So where are we going with this bullshit? How can we allow the current structure to exist, post meltdown?

The corruption inside the government, interlinked with big business/foreign financiers, is so pervasive and blatant, I seriously doubt that things can ever be the same. These motherfuckers not only killed capitalism, they stifled America’s brand of business, worldwide. Who in their right mind will listen to our advice anymore? How can we tell the next up and coming nation to use our mold?

It is broken.

So now we have President Obama. He talks a big game; but thus far, he is just giving us more of the same. Which means one thing: they (our government) have no fucking idea how to arrest the decline. The answer to our problems cannot be buying the toxic assets from the banks, at a 200% premium no less. You have to be fucking kidding me. We are not talking 1 trill either. The real exposure is more than 3 trillion dollars.

Some of you conspiracy theorists out there think the government is doing this on purpose, in order to grab control of everything. I tend to think they are all incompetent, viagra popping drunkards, who have overplayed their hands and are about to be called out.

Now go ahead and bet against us because that’s what makes markets :) .

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