Good morning from Tuscany. As you slept I had my third good ride in Tuscany. Despite all the time on the road this week I have no clearer view of the markets. The downtrends are gathering steam and I remain mostly on the stock market sidelines (I own a lot of crypto still and some Coinbase).

How bad is this current selloff (mostly technology stocks)?

Going back 20 years, this is the WORST quarter for a equally waited portfolio of The Nasdaq 100 and bonds:

This chart indicates that buying tech stocks when they get this bad, has been rewarding.

I have enclosed below the Year to Date, One Year and Three-Year Charts of the major averages in addition to energy, Russia, China, Germany and Emerging Markets. I hope this gives you a feel of where we are and where we have come from the last three years (if you sign up for Koyfin, you can click the link and tinker with the time frames and tickers yourself)…

How bad is China’s Internet crash? Charlie has the details:

As for the bond markets…Charlie has a few good charts to show just how bad a year it has been for bonds…

As for the one piece of market data you can point to that is encouraging, Charlie gives you this S&P returns stat:

The price action is horrible, the macro news is terrible, there is a miserable war underway, $100 oil and nasty inflation. It probably can’t get much worse which is why it would not surprise me to see stocks higher 12 months out.

Have a good day.