Retail…Reimagine the Reimagining…STAT!

The pace of change in retail/e-commerce is making my head spin.

This chart I created today compares the ONE year chart of public companies Restoration Hardware, Wayfair (e-commerce home furnishings and decor) and Simon Property Group (premiere mall REIT):

Over the last year leading up to COVID, it was a Restoration Hardware world. They were even one of those brands that was saving Simon Property (Apple and LULU and high end restaurants are the others).

Ellen and I are loyal to Restoration Hardware and I was kicking myself for missing the trend. Even Warren Buffett was long the stock as the stock peaked in February of this year. COVID hit and the stock plunged 70 percent at one point by mid March. I was a little eager and started buying down a mere 40 percent.

In the meantime, you can see how the virus has pummeled the REIT into oblivion. Simon has been trying to reimagine the malls with the likes of Restoration but now they will have to reimagine the reimagining. The markets seem rather skeptical and the stock continues to drop.

Meanwhile, Wayfair was in the vice of Amazon, Shopify and Restoration Hardware and at first COVID made this pure e-commerce look like the dead. Buy you can see that in just the last 30 days, the stock has quadrupled as investors speculate that Wayfair is back in the mix in a COVID world.

Money never sleeps and this one chart shows you how fast money is repositioning for a COVID and post COVID world.

Watching the public markets as intensely as I have the last 60 days from home has taught me a lot.

The new trends, change of trends and accelerating trends are dizzying.

The public markets don’t make much sense day to day which is why I try not to look at them. But I can’t help myself in a COVID, work from home world and I am trying to use the time to figure out where the money is flowing.

Have a great Saturday.