The Panic Takes a Break….The Love Boat… How Does The Stock Market Bottom and a Salute To Who Got It Right

Before I get started….

I like to say panic when everyone else is giddy…or ‘Panic First‘. After you panic first and everyone else is panicking, I like to ask ‘What could go right‘.

Onwards…

This was a crazy week of selling. The crew at Stocktwits summed it up well in the awesome (free) newsletter:

This was the worst week in more than 10 years for the S&P 500 which fell 11.5% over the 5 sessions. It was historic and will be remembered. Not only did stocks get crushed but treasury bond yields made all-time lows (see below), energy fell 16%, financials fell 13%, tech fell 11% all amidst a burgeoning global coronavirus panic.

Few are prepared for this kind of stuff and even those who are must be exhausted.

We rarely offer advice in this space but are going to take a moment to do so here. Take the weekend to rest, spend time with those you care about, count blessings, and refresh. Next week will require your best.

I joked on Twitter that I saw an ‘expert’ on Fox News point to the bright spot of the panic..’Now that my portfolio is down 20 percent, the socialists will only get 80 percent‘.

You are not a crazy person if you were panicked by Thursday. We went from all-time highs to near bear market in just one week. Have a look:

I was proud of my wife Ellen who texted me on Thursday and asked me if she we should buy a stock for the kids. At the time, I was in my hotel room under the covers mumbling under my mask. I hope she followed the orders on my blogpost yesterday and bought some Google and Mastercard.

By the close yesterday, there were signs that the panic was subsiding. Time will tell.

The cruise industry has been battered from the Corona virus scare – which makes sense – but Professor Galloway says Carnival Cruise Lines may be a buy because of the massive trend of people loving cruises. He makes a compelling argument and I bought a few shares just to start tracking it myself.

For all of you asking me if the stock market bottomed…I have no idea. I will point you to Michael Batnick has a great post on stock market bottoms.

Finally…a salute to three people that nailed the problems that exploded this week. First, my friend Brian Shannon @alphatrends is a short term trader that nailed the risk he saw from his signals. Have a look.

My friend JC nailed it back in late January (after being bullish for months and months) when he penned ‘It’s Time, We Are Buying Bonds Now‘.

Last but not least, Macrocharts who saved people a fortune with his post last weekend (before the meltdown) titled ‘Something Truly Rare Is Happening In Markets’. I linked to it on my post last Monday. As an encore, Macrocharts has a new post to follow up. You should read it. It is technical, but like me, he thinks there are signs of a bottom.