A happy belated Valentines Day…this was pretty cute.

I had a productive few days in New York and am looking forward to the weekend.

The stock market is on my mind (likely too much), mostly because it has stopped making much sense to me. I am trying to stick to the basics right now because I have invested for over 30 years and have seen a few things.

I love seeing my stocks go up every day. No complaints.

I love seeing new people, especially young people and any age first timers start to invest, even if it is speculative. My vision at Social Leverage was to invest in companies that would onboard this next generation and hopefully educate them and provide the tools. We are there now with the stock market…in droves. In 2017 it was crypto that onboarded people and I loved that too. Investing is an act of freedom. Yes the newbies will get smacked around, but many will get the bug and a next generation of investors will be born.

There is a price of admission with investing that I think investors today (right now) might not quite recognize because of all the fun they are having. Everyone should read Charlie’s piece on the subject and pass it around to their kids.

I am also reminded of this great post by Morgan Housel on the ‘Laws of Investing‘ which is worth a read every year. This law stands out today:

Law #2: Calm plants the seeds of crazy.

If markets never crashed they wouldn’t be risky.

If they weren’t risky they would get expensive.

When they’re expensive they crash.

The same is true for recessions. When the economy is stable people become optimistic. When they get optimistic they go into debt. When they go into debt the economy becomes unstable.

Economist Hyman Minsky figured out that stability is destabilizing half a century ago and it’s one of the most useful observations in investing because it explains why volatility is both inevitable and caused by people acting reasonably. If you view every debt-fueled recession, market crash, and asset bubble as an example of your fellow people acting crazy you might get cynical, which makes it hard to be a long-term optimist even when you should be. If you view them as inevitable you realize they’re just part of the ride and an occasional reminder that the fasten-your-seatbelt sign should never be turned off.

While this market is fun and my $LULU, $GOOG $SHOP and $AAPL look like they will never stop going up, they will stop going up. Low interest rates and a politicized stock market have been an incredible backdrop for a BTFD (buy the f*#king dip mentality to take hold), but the party will end one day. I like this chart from Rudy:

I am not looking to make people sell their stocks. I do not think timing the market is worth your time. I’m just thinking out loud.