It’s pretty obvious that the love for Apple and that late pile in to MacWorld buzz combined with the tax selling in January with the real problems in the financials was the cocktail for a massive decline. Congrats to FLY and my man Brian for timing the call nicely and switching easily from bull to bear…kudos my men.
It will get worse, hopefully fast and tomorrow. I feel a real bounce is coming. BUT – that’s the side of my brain that thinks, the bad side. The side that gets you buried.
That said, my Apple and VMW flips at the open were good and I am rebuying tomorrow, hopefully lower.
That’s it on the buy side.
I will further play the long side if I must tomorrow with Goldman, SPY and maybe DIA. Nothing else looks remotely interesting to own other than for a bounce.
My loan short Akamai is a homerun, but it’s nothing against my 50 long positions. My big SPY short has now been mostly covered for an amazing trade, but again, just a band-aid on a hemorrage of giveups. Gold is awesome but why route for that even though I am long. it’s not really good for anyone.
This is going to be a great year for people that stay in the game. Really great. I am looking at deals in Phoenix that should not be possible. It’s a complete giveup here in real estate…no bids. I am going to print money in the stock market at some point soon and so will you if you do less right now and build the good list. You need to jab and move. For me, I am not around the desk enough to trade which sucks because I have been feeling this. It’s also why I reduced my total stocks holdings a few years ago to 30 percent as I have blogged for a while. I will push it to 50 percent soon at this pace of decline at least for a period.
Hope you are surviving the misery. It will help to turn off the TV and talking heads, it’s just noise and confusion for you. Trust me on that.
disclosure- Long VMW, Apple, short Akamai and SPY
You are still bullish, due to the incessant bull run of recent years.
Once you recall the tape of 2000-2002, you will realize this is the beginning.
I have to agree with The Fly. This is closer to the beginning of the decline rather than the bottom.
The major market averages have been propped up for as long as possible and now it’s hitting the fan.
The leaders are going to get whacked. Today it was ISRG. GOOG is perilously close to falling through support. RIMM looks like it wants to go lower as well.
IMO, this is no time to play hero. Only way to play the long side is for quick bounces, like you’ve been doing. But I’d have very tight stops in place.
As always, just one person’s opinion.
we’ll get a big spike by turdsday … that will be your chance hit the porfolio liquidate button
then go 200% short
do it just to see that you can flip the switch that quick
you’ll learn something that will pay dividends 4 the rest of your tdg life
Bruce is this what your talking about?
{“Still, I am emphatic that investors should evaluate their risk exposures and tolerances now, in order to allow for substantial further market weakness. Market conditions presently feature a Pandora’s Box of rich valuations, vulnerable profit margins, rising default risk, rapidly deteriorating market internals, failing support levels, and accumulating evidence of oncoming recession. As I noted in my December 17 comment, “there is one particular scenario that would be ominous in my view. That would be if we see a relatively uninterrupted series of declines that breaks cleanly through the August and November lows, followed by a one-day advance of 200-400 Dow points. That’s a script that markets tend to follow pre-crash. Though it’s not a strong expectation or forecast, it’s something worth monitoring, because we’ve started to see the pattern of abrupt jumps and declines at 10-minute intervals that is often a hallmark of nervous markets.”}
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
January 7, 2008
this is not a trading prediction site
Thats what I meant to say Mr Bill.
Howard, I exagerrate.
But watch for the spike, and use it.
No, seriously.
Right on about the useless talking heads.
Echo chamber in full effect. Whether they’re talking the economy or politics they’re completely worthless. Dangerous, even.
-DT