This is not a ‘told you so’ blog post. It’s more like a ‘told me so’. I write because it helps tell ME what to do. In November and December of last year I was telling myself to sell most of my crypto. I am glad I did, but when crashes like we are in now happen, you never sold enough.
Last November and December I wrote about the silliness of the crypto markets and my participation in them.
This post titled ‘#Only in 2017’ explained it well:
We will look back at markets in 2017 and go WTF.
Of course, selling my tokens only meant getting back Bitcoins which by this time were at $3,700. Basically I had given up on 80 percent Bitcoin gains over this time period for 600 percent Civic gains…#onlyin2017 #dayenu.
Tonight I sold some of those Bitcoins for $6,800.
I went from selling Bitcoins at $1,900 to owning more of them at $6,800 with a 600 percent gainer in tokens in between.
In other words, I’ve made so many mistakes in 2017 but most have just resulted in bigger gains…#onlyin2017 #dayenu
I doubt my 2018 investment stories will have similar hashtags!
In December of last year this post titled ‘Borrowed Crypto Time‘. Surely that was the top?
Also in December I wrote ‘Yo Alexa…When Should I Sell My Bitcoin‘. The fact that CNBC was running ‘How To Buy Bitcoin Instructional Videos with Bitcoin at $19,000’ was in fact THE top. There was also this…
Speaking of shaking my head…I thought Josh Brown and I keynoting at a crypto conference 10 days ago would be the top for Bitcoin, but CNBC refused to let me have a moment of glory.
So what to do now?
I am buying more Apple.
I bought some at $201, $191, and yesterday at $178. I buy stocks like Apple when they are down 20-30 percent from their highs. Apple is on my 8 to 80 list.
Of course, this could be the beginning of the end. Apple may be the next GE or Nokia.
The new Google Android Phone with the better camera may be the beginning of the end for iPhone’s dominance.
I’ll take my chances though.
For the faint of heart, here are the Apple corrections since 2008:
This view of the Apple drawdowns may also help with perspective:
I am in STFR mode so if Apple does rally 10-15 percent quickly, this investment will likely be a trade.