Is Tech Dead?

My mom was calling me all week (she lives in Toronto).

I was not returning her calls because I figured like everyone else she was calling for my opinion about the wreckage in software and cloud stocks.

For my mom’s 8oth birthday we got her an iPad and my niece Jordie subscribed her to my blog.

I did call her back yesterday and she said she just wanted to check if I was alive…you know because I could have been abducted by the Chinese because of my tweets, but to trick my mom they left a doppelganger behind to keep my blog going so as to not create any suspicion.

Anyhoo….mom …thanks for not asking about stocks and congrats for making the blog.

So…are tech stocks dead?

I checked in on Tomasz’s great software blog for some data:

The public software sector is weathering the second deepest multiple contraction in the last decade. Only the 2016 reduction of 57% surpasses it. Public market investors are rotating out of high growth technology companies as the Fed’s policies of quantitative easing, asset purchases, and low rates abate.

That is pretty bad.

Let’s go to some charts which might give you perspective. Below I have shared the 1 year, 5 year, 10 year and 20 year charts of The Dow, The Russell, The S&P, The Nasdq 1090 ($QQQ), Gold and Energy ($XLE) (thanks KOYFIN which is FREE).

Once you have clicked on them you will see what everyone else in the business sees and I have been saying for a long long long time on this blog…Q’s over $SPY’s.

Now for the last few months I have been saying $X’s (financial and energy) over Q’s.

To be clear, I love talking and writing about the stock market, but I’m not thrilled about talking and writing about it in a world where the X’s over Q’s is a trend that persists and software stays in a prolonged bear market.

My gut says I won’t and twenty years of market charts would suggest I won’t.

But the markets do not care what I think.

For now, we are in a tech correction, led by software and cloud stocks and I don’t know long it will last or how deep it will get.

I hope the charts offer up some context to help you think about how you want to allocate your capital.