Pretty awe inspiring moves in commodities and stocks.
Only a great system has you fully invested in times like this. I have never trusted one enough.
I am watching a few in action and am blown away so congrats to those that have embraced it to it’s fullest. It’s not easy and why I invest so much time and energy in watching the all-time high list and building Stocktwits50 with Phil and Ivan. Things are rarely this good.
I have my wins but it’s my misses and losses that hurt when the markets move with ease to the upside.
Selling Gold and Silver a few weeks ago look the dumbest and hurt the most and I will be buying back soon if the markets let me back in. In the meantime, the urge is to chase but with so much easing and so many breakouts and so many themes working I will focus on the best entries.
what if you were only careful and had exited ‘ too early’. it is never too early to take profits. and dangerous to want to reposition lower IF the trend changes, many others are expecting a massive correction, and you would be the last one to buy. it hurts to be the last dipster…
As this momentum is almost 100% correlated to the currency debasement policy of the Fed, one has to realize is that the momentum will end when the Fed is done and when it is done, the reaction to bulls will not be friendly. Valuations under good earnings are stretched to the max now and any crack in that will send the rats off the ship once more. Having seen this crap from the late 60s until now, I guess I am just a bit more skeptical. The best move I ever made was exiting deeply profitable rallies in the last really big bubble (1999-2000), and have traded at the margins ever since. I guess I have seen the movie too many times to listen to those who say “its different this time”.
My basic reaction is to continue to follow the trend with hedging and be prepared to exit when the cracks hit, which, eventually, they will. I fear greatly that we will see a yo-yo market like that which has befallen the Nikkei from 1989 to present. Until we have some adults in the room in Congress, a Fed that is not politically motivated, and someone in any Federal and State level who understands basic accounting (along with the commutative property of addition (and subtraction), the riding of momentum is indeed a game best left to professionals and those who can shoulder the risks. Its the “buy and hold” crowd that will be screwed in this mess, and the unsophisticated “buy the dips” crowd we be skewered eventually with them.
I am not trying to be a party pooper; I am simply a realist. Let’s hope for saner times and more responsible fiscal policy so that the investing game is not skewed to the gunslingers. (and, for the record, I am a bit of a gunslinger myself, so I can say that).
this has beenthe most hated rally of all time, but if you don’t look at what the majority look at i.e jumk bonds,emerging market indices the writing has been on the wall for ages and this rally is showing no signs of slowing down yet. it has been a nice controlled easy climb no extremes yet. When all the money comes out of bonds due to inflation (which is well and truly here) This money is going to go somewhere and that somewhere will be commodities and equities, When you see the charts look out of control and a bubble forming then you can start moving your tops a bit tighter. but this rally has a long way to go yet, and people there are still some bargains out there but are getting fewer and fewer.
the final piece of the puzzel has just started and that is oil above $86 you will see 100 very soon before year end i reckon. And this is when people are going to wake up to inflation. have you noticed the deflationists have all gone quiet!!!
indeed.
I’m surprised more people don’t follow IBD and the 52 week high list (and low list during bearish times). The best stocks are on those lists and repeat offenders on them. As a trader, you are just left with the lofty task for separating out the duds from the good ones. Still, it is nice to have a list to start from. I haven’t played with the StockTwits 50 yet, but I’m assuming this is the same concept with perhaps better filtering.
Now execution is also a huge part of the equation as we know. I bought NFLX 2 different times in the low 50s but was in just a touch too early and was stopped out. I was then promptly left in the dust for 100 points.
My last comment is that I am not bashing the trend, it is what it is, and I will trade it. Just do not become mezmerized by it. It will ultimately end and end badly…but that time, BE SHORT. The trend will tell you. It is never different any time. All cycles come and all cycles go. Roll with them :).
Howard, I have a great system that would have kept me in it. I am just to stupid to follow it. My discipline really sucks. I’ve read and studied books etc. on discipline and still yet I trade on my instincts and screw up everytime. Really frustrating.
You only need one great one. Keep trying.