December was a month of more selling for me. I had the opportunity to liquidate some stock in private and newly public holdings for my hedge fund and Social Leverage and so I did.
It feels great to be flush with cash and at – what I believe – an incredibly early point in the cycle of recovery. Not every industry crashed and not every industry has bottomed. It’s a unique investing environment.
I have been asked for my three favorite stocks going in to 2012. They are Google, Intuit and Liveperson ( $goog $intu $lpsn ). I think 2012 is the year of financial uprisings and data. There are a bunch of companies at the guts and the front end of payment systems that are coming into the mainstream. There is Facebook credits. There is Visa and Mastercard giddy with cash and at all-time highs. I expect Google to make a huge push into finance as they did travel and Intuit makes the most sense. If any of these three miscue, they will not be my favorites. I will write about it.
Henry Blodgett sums up how I feel about Google right now and it is my largest position. Dan Frommer sums up how I feel about Apple $AAPL and it is why it reamins the second largest position for me and largest for my kids.
I also own Ariba, Amazon, Apple, Nuance, Rackspace, ARM Holdings, Electronic Arts and Aspen Technology $AZPN and for some reason a little Yahoo (bought last week). As every day creeps by it appears that Yahoo is a company that nobody wants to own. It’s very rare to see such neglect of a global brand. That will change in the first quarter. Will it be a takeunder or takeover is the question.
Today, equities though make up less than 20 percent of my holdings.
I think at some point this year I will be long equities in the 50-70 percent range. I am building lists of companies.
For the first time since 2008, I want to be more invested in stocks than private companies and with the liquidations last month I am in a position to do so.
Because of TechStars, Angellist and my network, it will be harder than ever to sift through great ideas and teams and stay true to my plan set the last few weeks.
May the best ideas with the best prices and teams win!
Great piece Howard. I too am doing an asset allocation adjustment, maybe not as bullish as yours, but certainly similar.
It would help myself (and many of your other readers) to understand the process and tools you are using to sift through all the data. Is there a check-list you have for certain companies that you use? Is it social commentary on Stocktwits that moves the needle? I’d love to know how you evaluate your potential positions.
Hi Darren –
My routine is scanning the suggested stream on stockwtwits for 20 minutes a day and watching the all stream too.
You should start with a list of a stocks at all-time highs to get a feel of whats working. Just that is a routine…say 10 minutes a week. YOu can read TheStocktwits50 on the wekends too.
Most every final decision starts macro picture – which sectors are working, do i think it can continue, find companies doing the best, understand how much risk in each position I am willing to take and than buy.
You have a big oppty for a post here.
i will do a full blog post actually with links. good idea.
Great piece Howard. I too am doing an asset allocation adjustment, maybe not as bullish as yours, but certainly similar.
It would help myself (and many of your other readers) to understand the process and tools you are using to sift through all the data. Is there a check-list you have for certain companies that you use? Is it social commentary on Stocktwits that moves the needle? I’d love to know how you evaluate your potential positions.
Great piece Howard. I too am doing an asset allocation adjustment, maybe not as bullish as yours, but certainly similar.
It would help myself (and many of your other readers) to understand the process and tools you are using to sift through all the data. Is there a check-list you have for certain companies that you use? Is it social commentary on Stocktwits that moves the needle? I’d love to know how you evaluate your potential positions.
Surprised you’re inclined to move away from private equity but glad to hear you’re expecting the public markets to be full of up shwing.
Are startups overpriced?
there are always things overpriced. In general startups will be underpriced because of the scarcity of capital in a majority of places.
Hey Howard,
Seconding Darren’s and expanding suggestion for an in-depth post on your screening/analysis routine:
What news sites / blogs to do rely on daily – in addition to twitter/stocktwits – for market & industry info, macro picture, etc.?
What tools do you use for specific stock analysis and portfolio tracking (google/yahoo finance, online brokers)?