The Pressure of This Boom…

I love this bull market and boom more than most. I am long, not short. I am long simple growth ideas for simple reasons.

But, I am not long enough to really compete for the big investable dollars…what I call the dumb institutional dollars. I am way too conservative. I am mostly at peace with that. The game is the game.

To get the big institutional dollars you have to have pyramided into winners and catch a big run. You can’t sell on the way up and impress institutions.

With the $VIX closing at fresh lows (take a look), and the markets screaming higher, hedge fund rows around the world are panicking. They are underinvested. Almost everyone is. Being underinvested is fine for regular folks focused on putting food on the table, but not for managers paid to perform.

The real pressure of this boom is now the fear of missing out. The market will do some silly things in this phase and only the most disciplined will keep their profits when it ends.

Lot’s of ugly stuff gets covered up in this phase of a boom. Bank of America $BAC is nicely up 300 percent from it’s 2008 lows, but let’s be real, it’s still down 90 percent from it’s 2007 highs. The 20 year banking boom post the 1990 recession helped hide a lot of shit.

It’s nice to be a little small during booms. But, I do worry about not being able to retire before this big one ends. It’s still pressure.

Message to myself…don’t chase.

3 comments

  1. Pingback: Friday links: the fear of missing out - Abnormal Returns | Abnormal Returns

Comments are closed.