Other than war, I thought I had seen it all.
Nope.
Today we have Jesus and Bernie Madoff tweeting. Of course you will tell me Jesus has been dead for like a bazillion years so how can he be tweeting. I say, pretty good argument but than how come it’s a verified account?
But…I digress.
Over the last week, the S&P 500 (not the S&P 5) has moved TWENTY percent. It has done so only to end up in the same place.
WTF?
It’s simple…none of us know what the hell we are doing and/or the markets are broken.
Today we have SAP buying Sybase ($SY) for $65/share. SAP has no idea what they are doing. If they did, they would have bought Sybase for less than half that price in 2008.
People call trend investing lunacy when that’s how 99 percent of the capital market operates.
I trend invest in the stock market because everyone else does it. It’s also very liquid. I pay higher prices because price rarely lies in the public markets. WHEN it lies, few have the courage (including me) or the deep pockets to truly profit. Those that do, deserve the profits. They take more risk than me.
The markets of the last week make a trend investor dizzy because prices just break.
The last week was an outlier event that prove no strategy works all the time and investing is hard.
It also reminds me why I angel invest…it’s safer :)
I have been busy working on things outside of trading in the last week, but what is your reaction to the proposed legislation requiring registration for angel investing of amounts exceeding (the last time I checked) $30 million. I think it is an abomination and another reason why I think our government is overtly trying to destroy private capitalism of all stripes and kinds in the US.
How are you preparing to deal with this? Take it offshore (Israel, China?) Angel Investing itself may no longer be safe when put into the hands of insane criminal bureaucrats (sorry for such a mild description lol).
i am worried but hopeful the idiots come to their senses.
You angel invest, because I assume you have some control over the business operation.
I’ve long claimed that unless you are Buffett and able to accumulate a significant portion of a company’s shares, you don’t own a part of a business. You own a piece of paper, which price is determined by supply and demand. Even if you are very long term investor, who intends to hold forever, how could you justify your calculations for “fair” value of your stocks? How could you claim that you can forecast with good precision the future cash flows and interest rates for years to come?
All you can do is to follow trends. There are two types of trends:
1) social trends, which if properly exploited, could turn into rising earnings and price trends;
2) pure price trends, formed on the basis of capital market’s expectations
You angel invest, because I assume you have some control over the business operation.
I've long claimed that unless you are Buffett and able to accumulate a significant portion of a company's shares, you don't own a part of a business. You own a piece of paper, which price is determined by supply and demand. Even if you are very long term investor, who intends to hold forever, how could you justify your calculations for “fair” value of your stocks? How could you claim that you can forecast with good precision the future cash flows and interest rates for years to come?
All you can do is to follow trends. There are two types of trends:
1) social trends, which if properly exploited, could turn into rising earnings and price trends;
2) pure price trends, formed on the basis of capital market's expectations
I have been busy working on things outside of trading in the last week, but what is your reaction to the proposed legislation requiring registration for angel investing of amounts exceeding (the last time I checked) $30 million. I think it is an abomination and another reason why I think our government is overtly trying to destroy private capitalism of all stripes and kinds in the US.
How are you preparing to deal with this? Take it offshore (Israel, China?) Angel Investing itself may no longer be safe when put into the hands of insane criminal bureaucrats (sorry for such a mild description lol).
i am worried but hopeful the idiots come to their senses.
I see Jesus is following nobody. I wonder if Jesus would follow you if he was paid enough? And could you legitimately use that endorsement elsewhere in your marketing? Maybe time to start a short hedge fund targeted at a religious niche. :D
I see Jesus is following nobody. I wonder if Jesus would follow you if he was paid enough? And could you legitimately use that endorsement elsewhere in your marketing? Maybe time to start a short hedge fund targeted at a religious niche. :D
Angel investing is safer and has a higher upside, if you have the intuition, hot hand, and connections of a Howard Lindzon. The S&P 500 is for money managers skimming piles and for average Joes who have bought into the conventional wisdom that the best way to invest is to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller.
After the steam roller flattens them some more, average Joes will renounce stocks. There will be a winnowing of money managers, as the asset management sector shrinks, along with the rest of the financial sector. Stocks will eventually start trading at single digit multiples. Dividend yields will rise (at the end of the secular bear market that followed the Great Depression, stocks typically had higher yields than bonds). Then the next secular bull market will be ready to begin. That might not be for another 6-10 years though.
Between now and then, long-only, un-hedged stock investors will suffer.
i mostly agree , except for the part about me
You are being modest, but you’ve got a great track record as an angel investor, which suggests you’ve got a good intuition for evaluating new business ideas.
Angel investing is safer and has a higher upside, if you have the intuition, hot hand, and connections of a Howard Lindzon. The S&P 500 is for money managers skimming piles and for average Joes who have bought into the conventional wisdom that the best way to invest is to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller.
After the steam roller flattens them some more, average Joes will renounce stocks. There will be a winnowing of money managers, as the asset management sector shrinks, along with the rest of the financial sector. Stocks will eventually start trading at single digit multiples. Dividend yields will rise (at the end of the secular bear market that followed the Great Depression, stocks typically had higher yields than bonds). Then the next secular bull market will be ready to begin. That might not be for another 6-10 years though.
Between now and then, long-only, un-hedged stock investors will suffer.
i mostly agree , except for the part about me
You are being modest, but you've got a great track record as an angel investor, which suggests you've got a good intuition for evaluating new business ideas.