I am pretty sure we are still in a bubble phase.
It’s a bubble of bubbles world we now live in.
Since the 80’s we have been printing money and printing money leads to bubbles. Persistently low interest rates leads to bubbles. It is obviously intoxicating for governments to just ‘ease baby ease’. It’s Pavlovian monetary policy.
Under this policy, bankers have evolved like cockroaches, using technology in ever more creative (some would say evil) ways to protect themselves and create the ILLUSION of value like never before.
Since we have done little to protect the consumer from the ‘Too Big to Fail’ companies, and the bankers who have now learned marketing, we will inevitably get soaked in another financial bubble in the not too distant future.
While I may not chase the ‘Too Big To Fail’ dream of world dominance, a bazillion others in the ‘BRIC’ will. They are getting a taste of freedom AND money. They are 50 years behind the US roadmap and eerily copying it – just exponentially faster. Imagine where they are in the GREED lifecycle. It’s banker heaven.
It is too hard and aggravating for me to invest a sizable percentage of my portfolio in this corrupted and broken ‘Too Big To Fail’ stock market environment. You know my major themes based on the macro picture.
There is one bubble that I do not fear…the social web/social leverage bubble. It will inflate and get silly, but thousands upon thousands of profitable niches will show themselves.
My journey in the social web started in 2005 when I looked up the term ‘Term Sheet’ on Google while drafting one up for Golfnow.com. I discovered Brad Feld’s blog and Fred Wilson’s blog. I started my own blog on Google Blogger and wrote like a madman. Nobody was listening. As niches from Twitter, Stocktwits and other microblogging platforms expand, the speed to an audience will accelerate for the talented.
It will be years of rolling up/aggregating and years of discovery for the adventurous.
It will be a seemingly endless wave and if you position yourself accordingly, businesses will show up that carry you along to wealth you could never have imagined (wealth is not just money).
I watch it happen for people that get discovered every day on blogs, twitter, and Stocktwits…LIGHTBULBS clicking on, relationships sparking, matches being made, brains being leveraged. It has happened always as the world has shrunk, but never this fast and never this simply.
Enjoy the fact that it is impossible to value and ridiculed.
There is one bubble that I do not fear…the social web/social leverage bubble. It will inflate and get silly, but thousands upon thousands of profitable niches will show themselves. It seems i would love this bubble you are talking (LOL)
There is one bubble that I do not fear…the social web/social leverage bubble. It will inflate and get silly, but thousands upon thousands of profitable niches will show themselves. It seems i would love this bubble you are talking (LOL)
money makes the world go round. Everyone wants a piece of it regardless of your ethnicity,religion or personal creeds.
Thanks Howard for optomism and strength in such fragile and tenative economic times. I will share this post through all the aforementioned channels.
Curation needs to reremerge also people can't be lazy. You still have to filter and dig a little.
Thanks for this post, Howard; it’s great reading about your journey and seeing what you went through. Seeing Stocktwits kick so much ass in just one year is really inspirational and motivating.
Many compare opportunities in the social web now to the dot-com days; what’s interesting is that this time around though it’s happening amidst a worsening economy, part of the creative destruction. I think the entrepreneurs that prove themselves over the next few years will need to be far more hardcore and ambitious than the guys that made it in the easy glory days of the 90s.
Thx man. Yo are right about that. The country is changing very rapidly now
Thx man. Yo are right about that. The country is changing very rapidly now
Well said. I am scared of the Twitter bubble, however. So much spam that the real substance gets diluted and real publishers don't get the exposure they deserve. P.S. StockTwits is the single best Twitter by-product in existence!
money makes the world go round. Everyone wants a piece of it regardless of your ethnicity,religion or personal creeds.
Thanks for this post, Howard; it's great reading about your journey and seeing what you went through. Seeing Stocktwits kick so much ass in just one year is really inspirational and motivating.
Many compare opportunities in the social web now to the dot-com days; what's interesting is that this time around though it's happening amidst a worsening economy, part of the creative destruction. I think the entrepreneurs that prove themselves over the next few years will need to be far more hardcore and ambitious than the guys that made it in the easy glory days of the 90s.
Thanks Howard for optomism and strength in such fragile and tenative economic times. I will share this post through all the aforementioned channels.
Hi Julie…hows the family. say hi to everyone.
Well said. I am scared of the Twitter bubble, however. So much spam that the real substance gets diluted and real publishers don’t get the exposure they deserve. P.S. StockTwits is the single best Twitter by-product in existence!
Curation needs to reremerge also people can’t be lazy. You still have to filter and dig a little.
just answered your fears in a spam post. thx
You are wise
Although google is not a company I would bet againbst
Last Tuesday, my marketing teacher asked how many people are using Facebook. He counted 15 hands. There were 18 students in the room. Then he asked, how many people are using Twitter. I was the only one. He mentioned that he sees similar results among all of his classes. Something tells me that Facebook IPO is a buy at the open. Do I currently have the confidence to buy Twitter the first day they are publicly traded – No. The funny thing is that I don't even use Facebook, but I see how much time people are spending on it. Facebook has the potential to bite big chunk of the advertising money pie. It won't be a surprise if Facebook IPO coincides with GOOG all time high:)
I agree there is a bit of bubble movement, but the difference (in my opinion) is that it's a “measured” bubble. As you said, good stuff is coming out of it while the bad gets flushed or ignored. There seems to be more checks and balances than the previous bubble. The sellers are still selling, but the buyers aren't all buying, so the suckers are being left behind.
There is a system of trust in the social web that I can't fully explain, but like you I'm finding it rewarding vs. the effort being put in.
Last Tuesday, my marketing teacher asked how many people are using Facebook. He counted 15 hands. There were 18 students in the room. Then he asked, how many people are using Twitter. I was the only one. He mentioned that he sees similar results among all of his classes. Something tells me that Facebook IPO is a buy at the open. Do I currently have the confidence to buy Twitter the first day they are publicly traded – No. The funny thing is that I don’t even use Facebook, but I see how much time people are spending on it. Facebook has the potential to bite big chunk of the advertising money pie. It won’t be a surprise if Facebook IPO coincides with GOOG all time high:)
You are wise
Although google is not a company I would bet againbst
Interesting… similar story here – my friend teaches a 7th grade class and I asked her to take a similar poll for me last month. She asked her class of 25 kids how many of them use Facebook everyday, she said 21 of them raised their hand. No hands for Twitter though.
And these are the same kids who are spending several hours a day playing those Zynga games. For them, Facebook is the most important destination on the net and it will be so well into their college years and beyond, I think.
Interesting… similar story here – my friend teaches a 7th grade class and I asked her to take a similar poll for me last month. She asked her class of 25 kids how many of them use Facebook everyday, she said 21 of them raised their hand. No hands for Twitter though.
And these are the same kids who are spending several hours a day playing those Zynga games. For them, Facebook is the most important destination on the net and it will be so well into their college years and beyond, I think.
I agree there is a bit of bubble movement, but the difference (in my opinion) is that it’s a “measured” bubble. As you said, good stuff is coming out of it while the bad gets flushed or ignored. There seems to be more checks and balances than the previous bubble. The sellers are still selling, but the buyers aren’t all buying, so the suckers are being left behind.
There is a system of trust in the social web that I can’t fully explain, but like you I’m finding it rewarding vs. the effort being put in.
Hi Julie…hows the family. say hi to everyone.
just answered your fears in a spam post. thx
indoobadably
“It will be years of rolling up/aggregating and years of discovery for the adventurous. It will be a seemingly endless wave and if you position yourself accordingly..”
Bingo, where info's infinitely available it's a slice and dice era. Those that sort or curate well should thrive and have fun, in fact we've barely started to mashup info or networks or attach our data to geography so many filters or layers to be honed.
great piece and so true.
great piece and so true.
“It will be years of rolling up/aggregating and years of discovery for the adventurous. It will be a seemingly endless wave and if you position yourself accordingly..”
Bingo, where info’s infinitely available it’s a slice and dice era. Those that sort or curate well should thrive and have fun, in fact we’ve barely started to mashup info or networks or attach our data to geography so many filters or layers to be honed.
indoobadably
great piece and so true.