Mark your calendars. There is something big brewing in financial markets.
David Einhorn, the ‘hot hand’ with all the money that nobody on mainstreet knows (who is also proving that all the money in the world can’t get you good fake hair), is mad at Bernake and pissed about QE2, explaining his risk thoughts on equities.
Fred Wilson, who has had front row seat as an investor in a bubble or two, is writing today about ‘Storm Clouds’ in the web world.
Jim Cramer is telling his viewers to have 20 percent of their assets in gold ($GLD). Not ‘I like gold, I have been right about the direction, and think it goes higher’…but urging 20 percent allocation to gold.
I have many friends who are having ‘fun’ trading and investing right now. They deserve it as I know them and they are some of the hardest working people I know, but investing and trading are rarely FUN.
At the same time as all this is going on, Facebook just pre launched their email product without an advertising spend to 500 million plus people in probably 500 languages (even $aapl has to buy television ads for it’s product launches). I know this because my daughter was telling me about it in the car and wondering what her email address should be when they launch. She’s 12, has had a gmail account for two years and has switched in her mind before they launched. Facebook is going to suck the life out of many profitable and potentially profitable companies in the years to come.
Oh and Semiconductor stocks $smh, which were the bubble darlings of 1999, are littering the Stocktwits50 latest list.
We have massive pockets of deflation and inflation going on at the very same time and it’s all connected globally.
This is not a prediction post as I am very long and will never be the guy to go all cash. I have though been on leverage (covered on this blog) for periods of time in 2006 and 2007.
What do you think lies immediately ahead and what strategies work at moments like this…please do share…
In the words of the immortal Clubber Lang: “Prediction? PAIN!”
6.9% ytd? More like sucklight.
Go long anything and everything that comes out of the ground and that we need to import
Facebook mail is going to be huge. Hopefully our kids can use it to figure out how to clean up the mess we’re making for them right now.
If (when) Facebook takes over the world, your investment in Buddy Media will make you seem like a savant. Well done.
http://coloradospringscopier.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/head-in-sand.jpg
What is thoroughly interesting is to watch how the silver futures, ETF and physical will move, based on the alleged manipulation of the market by JPM and HSBC when the news hits the mainstream media. It is said that Asia is also buying silver a lot so s squeeze should be in order.
Wait…so Einhorn is the shiznit?? Dude isn’t even up as much as the broad markets YTD – Yet they let him run money, and people make him into some false prophet? Or am I missing something?
Re your posts bigger theme *bubbles* – OF course there are lots of bubbles about…they only problem with bubbles as any sort of investment indicator is that you never know how big and how large they will get before they pop ….nothing to see here…move along
The more I learn, the more I realize how little I really know.
That being said, I think there is a bubble in web companies that don’t fundamentally improve or change anything. Wait 3-5 years when all these hot “web start ups” are going to be showing the exact same thing as today; no rev, no profit, and a service that I can REALLY get by without.
I think that’s ok. Faster evolution is the revolution
CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
Most everything traded now is a commodity, as they’re moving via sentiment and macro forces/news, vs fundy’s and techny’s. Sell puts or buy calls at the low end of the channel; sell calls or buy puts at the top end. No way any of these things we trade are worth what they think – either on the low or high side. ‘Nuf said.
Thx man
CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
Think: THE LAW OF DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION http://andreivanchuk.com/blog/2010/05/law-of-diffusion-of-innovation/
Something brewing? What should we expect going forward? Check out this link:
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/11/investor-sentiment-bear-signal.html
No equivocating here!!
I have no idea what lies immediately ahead, but I think a strategy that works now is being market neutral. I have started systematically putting cash to work in market neutral trades, this being the most recent one. Will tee up another one this week.
Incidentally, my most recent market neutral trade piggybacks on a David Einhorn short: Long GTY, Short JOE.
Immediately ahead? Downside: Ireland/Euro? China tightening? New Congress action uncertainty? Overbought? Upside: QE2, strong performance in well-selected names, early drive for year-end results, holidays. Overall: A range bound struggle. Stock pickers market.
i tend to agree
Fascinating! As Mr. Spock would say.
There are strong undercurrents of inflation AND deflation. The governments became the major players in financial markets, and that added uncertainty and instability in the markets.
From this point there’s almost an equal chance of both melt down and melt up. Personally I think the real market value (without government intervention) is below 800.