I was talking about Poker on Twitter today and in an idiot exchange got…’poker does indeed take more brainpower than being a web entrepreneur’
Ouch.
I think Poker is dumb. Obviously it’s a huge business, but so is porn and gardening.
I don’t understand if you are rich and undertained, the draw to go to casino’s and touch filthy chips and sit around all day talking to other men. I also don’t believe in the huge time sink that anyone serious about running a business could dedicate to playing poker.
Case in point Jason Calacanis .
I don’t know which is harder, but Jason is proving that he is bad at both these days.
As bad as Mahalo is, he still has a better chance as a web entrepreneur so maybe Poker is indeed harder.
Chime in…
As far as I understand, poker is all about proper risk management. You play only when you have a statistical edge. It is not a leveled playing field. Psychology has a huge role. It is certainly difficult, but its contribution to civilization is zero. Web entrepreneurship requires different skills. You need 2 main things to succeed:1) a great idea with a clear concept how it could be monetized (have a few concepts for monetization, because one might not be enough or may not work)2) have the ability to spread the idea, so that your service becomes a social phenomenon and a brand name. There were hundreds of sites about web video, but YouTube was chosen by Google and became the undisputed leader. There will be always people who will have similar idea. The key to prospering is in the execution. Web entrepreneurship usually takes one of two paths: 1) capitalizing on a current social trend or 2) starting a new social trend. The ones who take the second path turn profitable in very rare occasions.There is no doubt that entrepreneurship creates more value for the civilization. With that said, there is no way poker and web entrepreneurship should be compared for difficulty. It takes different skills. You can’t compare baseball to football.
In current economy, driven by intermediaries and service providers, most businesses don’t contribute to civilization. Especially – trading, short term investing (speculation) etc., which is parasite in nature.
Trading and speculation are no more parasitic than banking is. What does a bank do, just hold you money? No. It provides safety and risk management, for a fee (either a direct fee, or an indirect fee by only paying your a portion of their return on your money as interest).
With speculative trading, the traders are providing a liquidity service at their own risk. If they make money, they make money, if they lose money, they lose money, but either way other investors and traders get the benefit of increased liquidity. Liquidity is one of those funny things that no one really cares about until they really need it – then they’re damn glad it’s there.
Jd, traders are important providers of liquidity in the capital markets. Higher liquidity justifies lower risk as faster exit is possible. Lower risk brings down the cost of capital and stimulate risk appetite in the real economy, which give birth to more start ups. It might not be obvious on the surface, but liquid capital markets are an essential ingredient of every developed economy.
Every business is important, because it adds competition in the system.
Attempts to understand poker and generally the class of games it belongs to – games of chance – underlie the mathematics of statistical inference and probability theory. The backbone of the current cutting edge in computer software.
Poker is related to running a business as it can serve as a toy (but very complex) model of how to deal with risks, take advantage of current position and analyse, read and respond to different situations. The mathematics involved are also very much related to quantitative trading.
oh and i forgot to mention that von Neumann use poker as scaffolding in thinking up his original game theory. So to say that poker has created no value for civilization is a bit of shallow analysis.
The probability theory wasn’t invented by poker players. It was used to create that game. The fact that you are using a computer to boost your productivity, doesn’t mean that you created the computer and you can claim it as your contribution to civilization. There is a big difference between using and inventing a concept.It is true that there are many similarities between Quantitative trading and poker, but there is also one major difference – the historical probabilities in trading are changing every day and the success of one system decreases over time as more and more people start to use it. There is not such thing in poker. The probability to win that the same 5 cards provide today stays the same tomorrow. When will people realize that there is much more to trading/investing than there is to poker. Trading/Investing is much more complicated for the simple reason that there is no model that could reflect all the variables (changing in real time) that impact people’s decisions making.
You clearly misread or misunderstood my statement. I stated “**Attempts** to **Understand** poker and **generally the class of games it belongs to – games of chance** – underlie the mathematics of statistical inference and probability theory”. Poker was most certainly not used to create probability theory but it is certainly likely that attempts to understand it and Similar games led to advances in the Theory.
As for the probabilities in poker, there are so many hands possible such that depending on the number of players, your position and cards dealt the Conditional probability to getting a certain hand is effectively different and changes from day to day and moment to moment. Computing all possible hands for n players to get probabilities of a winning hand is in exponential time.
As for mathematics which have a role in both: statistical inference, decision and game theory and general optimization strategies/techniques are a few; among others. Nonetheless I did not say they were equivalent. I stated poker serves as a useful but complex toy model to learn dealing with risk and situational thinking.
this post is suppposed to be about web entrepreneurs and poker…not trading
:)
Ok, I respect your opinion. Everyone is entitled to have one. We both agree
that poker is difficult. We just hold different stand on its role and
contribution to society. It is the most normal thing. The world wouldn’t
have a chance if everyone was thinking alike.
As far as I understand, poker is all about proper risk management. You play only when you have a statistical edge. It is not a leveled playing field. Psychology has a huge role. It is certainly difficult, but it contribution to civilization is zero.
Web entrepreneurship requires different skills. You need 2 main things to succeed:
1) a great idea with a clear concept how it could be monetized (have a few concepts for monetization, because one might not be enough or may not work)
2) have the ability to spread the idea, so your product become a social phenomenon and a brand name. There were hundreds of sites about web video, but YouTube was chosen by Google and became the undisputed leader. There will be always people who will have similar idea. The key to prospering is in the execution.
Web entrepreneurship usually take one of two paths: 1) capitalizing on a current social trend or 2) starting a new social trend. The ones who take the second path turn profitable in very rare occasions.
There is no doubt that entrepreneurship creates more value for the civilization. With that said, there is no way poker and web entrepreneurship should be compared for difficulty. It takes different skills. You can't compare baseball to football.
In current economy, driven by intermediaries and service providers, most businesses don't contribute to civilization. Especially – trading, short term investing (speculation) etc., which is parasite in nature.
Here’s a counter example of a great poker player who is also an incredibly savvy and successful businessman, Andy Beal.
Here's a counter example of a great poker player who is also an incredibly savvy and successful businessman, Andy Beal.
poker is much like trading, howard- a battle of wits against others where the goal is to win money based on the quality of your decisions. Obviously, in poker, there is luck involved too – you can get your money in as a 75% favorite and still lose – but the same thing happens in markets (ie, risk arb).
there’s a reason Susquehanna makes poker theory and training an integral part of their training for new traders.
well, susquehanna is a different story. they actually lost one of their own, matt hawrilenko, to poker because he was making more money. that was instrumental in poker theory becoming a training requirement.
i think poker is infinitely more complex that trading. im not sure that studying theory in one realm will make you better in the other. its all about emotional variance. and that can be mastered anywhere.
fyi, SUSQ had the poker training program long before Hawrilenko left them – it was most definitely not a reaction to his leaving to play poker.
I like your comment about EMOTIONAL VARIANCE (ie, TILT control in poker) – although i disagree that it’s a skill that can be mastered anywhere.
i meant it can be mastered in any emotionally variant environment.
the only think real about poker is a no limit cash game. the reason some yahoo different wins the poker tiurney in vegas each year is because it is completely random and luck as everyone has to throw all in at some point and they have nothing to lose but the tournamernt.
The real players grind away taking your money at no limit games that 99.99 percent of every player on tv or on line could not sit 5 minutes. thats poker. everything else is an awful mutation.
howard – you bring up another concept that is DIRECTLY related to stock trading… volatility…
you have to look at tournaments from an expected value point of view. you have run extremely well to win one, but a great player is going to be +ev in most tournaments. statistically speaking, he will make money in the long run, and have a higher probability of taking the whole thing down.
i agree that the best players prefer cash games. tournaments require a different approach.
you bring up an interesting point about tv pros. most of them suck. and a fair number are actually broke. the online players are the ones that have all of the money.
just to show you, heres my tournament graph… over time there is no variance. http://twitpic.com/mhns6
I play midstakes online for a living. With notable exceptions, the overwhelming majority of known tourney players are breakeven to losing in the games that I play. Just wanted to reiterate.
Also, tournies not totally random obv. Very hard/impossible to make a living as a live tourney pro
The big difference between poker and trading/investing is called equity selection. In trading you chose your cards. The point is that it is not easy to know which cards are going to be profitable in advance. There is no such dimension of complication in poker, where you know the exact statistical edge of every hand you have.
Trading and speculation are no more parasitic than banking is. What does a bank do, just hold you money? No. It provides safety and risk management, for a fee (either a direct fee, or an indirect fee by only paying your a portion of their return on your money as interest).
With speculative trading, the traders are providing a liquidity service at their own risk. If they make money, they make money, if they lose money, they lose money, but either way other investors and traders get the benefit of increased liquidity. Liquidity is one of those funny things that no one really cares about until they really need it – then they're damn glad it's there.
I agree with Howard. I used to play poker a fair bit. In 1998 after I sold my first company I probably played (due to frustration in life, boredom, etc) for 365 straight nights, 8 hours a night, including the night my first kid was born. I was addicted. Read every book, watched every video. Played in all the underground clubs in NYC. Went to Las Vegas. Had a beach house in AC. Etc. But ultimately what Howard said is true, “go to casino’s and touch filthy chips and sit around all day talking to other men.” And even when you win decent stakes, it doesnt compare with the financial (not to mention societal) benefits of entrepreneurship.
I stopped playing and haven’t played since. (Well, that one time at Murder Inc records with Irv Gotti and crew but thats another story).
poker is much like trading, howard- a battle of wits against others where the goal is to win money based on the quality of your decisions. Obviously, in poker, there is luck involved too – you can get your money in as a 75% favorite and still lose – but the same thing happens in markets (ie, risk arb).
there's a reason Susquehanna makes poker theory and training an integral part of their training for new traders.
well, susquehanna is a different story. they actually lost one of their own, matt hawrilenko, to poker because he was making more money. that was instrumental in poker theory becoming a training requirement.
i think poker is infinitely more complex that trading. im not sure that studying theory in one realm will make you better in the other. its all about emotional variance. and that can be mastered anywhere.
the only think real about poker is a no limit cash game. the reason some yahoo different wins the poker tiurney in vegas each year is because it is completely random and luck as everyone has to throw all in at some point and they have nothing to lose but the tournamernt.
The real players grind away taking your money at no limit games that 99.99 percent of every player on tv or on line could not sit 5 minutes. thats poker. everything else is an awful mutation.
fyi, SUSQ had the poker training program long before Hawrilenko left them – it was most definitely not a reaction to his leaving to play poker.
I like your comment about EMOTIONAL VARIANCE (ie, TILT control in poker) – although i disagree that it's a skill that can be mastered anywhere.
i meant it can be mastered in any emotionally variant environment.
Jd, traders are important providers of liquidity in the capital markets. Higher liquidity justifies lower risk as faster exit is possible. Lower risk brings down the cost of capital and stimulate risk appetite in the real economy, which give birth to more start ups. It might not be obvious on the surface, but liquid capital markets are an essential ingredient of every developed economy.
howard – you bring up another concept that is DIRECTLY related to stock trading… volatility…
poker is the most thought provoking game ive ever played. its a complex puzzle with multiple dimensions.ive already written extensively about this topic. from a theoretical standpoint, i dont think theres any difference between starting a company and playing poker. more here: http://bit.ly/vtyQp
from a high level, both operate in the unknown and its an emotionally variant environment. that means you need to be lucky, and you need to be lucky to learn as you go… and sometimes, both get rich by doing things they dont understand.
poker is the most thought provoking game ive ever played. its a complex puzzle with multiple dimensions.
ive already written extensively about this topic. from a theoretical standpoint, i dont think theres any difference between starting a company and playing poker. more here: http://bit.ly/vtyQp
you have to look at tournaments from an expected value point of view. you have run extremely well to win one, but a great player is going to be +ev in most tournaments. statistically speaking, he will make money in the long run, and have a higher probability of taking the whole thing down.
i agree that the best players prefer cash games. tournaments require a different approach.
you bring up an interesting point about tv pros. most of them suck. and a fair number are actually broke. the online players are the ones that have all of the money.
Attempts to understand poker and generally the class of games it belongs to – games of chance – underlie the mathematics of statistical inference and probability theory. The backbone of the current cutting edge in computer software.
Poker is related to running a business as it can serve as a toy (but very complex) model of how to deal with risks, take advantage of current position and analyse, read and respond to different situations. The mathematics involved are also very much related to quantitative trading.
oh and i forgot to mention that von Neumann use poker as scaffolding in thinking up his original game theory. So to say that poker has created no value for civilization is a bit of shallow analysis.
The big difference between poker and trading/investing is called equity selection. In trading you chose your cards. The point is that it is not easy to know which cards are going to be profitable in advance. There is no such dimension of complication in poker, where you know the exact statistical edge of every hand you have.
just to show you, heres my tournament graph… over time there is no variance. http://twitpic.com/mhns6
The probability theory wasn't invented by poker players. It was used to create that game. The fact that you are using a computer to boost your productivity, doesn't mean that you created the computer and you can claim it as your contribution to civilization. There is a big difference between using and inventing a concept.
It is true that there are many similarities between Quantitative trading and poker, but there is also one major difference – the historical probabilities in trading are changing every day and the success of one system decreases over time as more and more people start to use it. There is not such thing in poker. The probability to win that 5 cards give stays the same. When will people realize that there is much more to trading/investing than there is to poker. Trading/Investing is much more complicated for the simple reason that there is no model that could reflect all the variables (changing in real time) that impact people's decisions making.
I agree with Howard. I used to play poker a fair bit. In 1998 after I sold my first company I probably played (due to frustration in life, boredom, etc) for 365 straight nights, 8 hours a night, including the night my first kid was born. I was addicted. Read every book, watched every video. Played in all the underground clubs in NYC. Went to Las Vegas. Had a beach house in AC. Etc. But ultimately what Howard said is true, “go to casino’s and touch filthy chips and sit around all day talking to other men.” And even when you win decent stakes, it doesnt compare with the financial (not to mention societal) benefits of entrepreneurship.
I stopped playing and haven't played since. (Well, that one time at Murder Inc records with Irv Gotti and crew but thats another story).
You clearly misread or misunderstood my statement. I stated “**Attempts** to **Understand** poker and **generally the class of games it belongs to – games of chance** – underlie the mathematics of statistical inference and probability theory”. Poker was most certainly not used to create probability theory but it is certainly likely that attempts to understand it and Similar games led to advances in the Theory.
As for the probabilities in poker, there are so many hands possible such that depending on the number of players, your position and cards dealt the Conditional probability to getting a certain hand is effectively different and changes from day to day and moment to moment. Computing all possible hands for n players to get probabilities of a winning hand is in exponential time.
As for mathematics which have a role in both: statistical inference, decision and game theory and general optimization strategies/techniques are a few; among others. Nonetheless I did not say they were equivalent. I stated poker serves as a useful but complex toy model to learn dealing with risk and situational thinking.
this post is suppposed to be about web entrepreneurs and poker…not trading
:)
Ok, I respect your opinion. Everyone is entitled to have one. We both agree
that poker is difficult. We just hold different stand on its role and
contribution to society. It is the most normal thing. The world wouldn't
have a chance if everyone was thinking alike.
I play midstakes online for a living. With notable exceptions, the overwhelming majority of known tourney players are breakeven to losing in the games that I play. Just wanted to reiterate.
Also, tournies not totally random obv. Very hard/impossible to make a living as a live tourney pro
regarding this, i like what Ben Horowitz had to say about the qualities that define a good CEO in this post – http://bit.ly/9ViCud.
“Some employees make products, some make sales; the CEO makes decisions. Therefore, a CEO can most accurately be measured by the speed and quality of those decisions. Great decisions come from CEOs who display an elite combination of intelligence, logic, and courage.”
experience hones sound judgment, but i think games like bridge and poker do a great job at training those decision-making skills in a simulated environment – they also require intelligence, logic, and courage. i think the same could be said of daytrading.
i bet a lot of your instincts sharpened from trading the markets all these yrs also come into play in your deals both as an entrepreneur and investor.
regarding this, i like what Ben Horowitz had to say about the qualities that define a good CEO in this post – http://bit.ly/9ViCud.
“Some employees make products, some make sales; the CEO makes decisions. Therefore, a CEO can most accurately be measured by the speed and quality of those decisions. Great decisions come from CEOs who display an elite combination of intelligence, logic, and courage.”
experience hones sound judgment, but i think games like bridge and poker do a great job at training those decision-making skills in a simulated environment – they also require intelligence, logic, and courage. i think the same could be said of daytrading.
i bet a lot of your instincts sharpened from trading the markets all these yrs also come into play in your deals both as an entrepreneur and investor.
Howard, read MCManus book “Cowboys full” – history and charm of poker – you will certainly get an appreciation.
Howard, read MCManus book “Cowboys full” – history and charm of poker – you will certainly get an appreciation.
Love that poker play by JC. The term “white as a ghost” as been redefined. Is it harder to be a web entrepeneur than a poker player? ask the Twitter guys as they try to figure out a business model.
Love that poker play by JC. The term “white as a ghost” as been redefined. Is it harder to be a web entrepeneur than a poker player? ask the Twitter guys as they try to figure out a business model.
Common denominator for both is you have to gamble and take a high risk in order to get a higher gain or profit.
Meanwhile, topsteptraders new introduced Live Real-time market trading using (CBOT and CME floor traders-alike platform) which drive marketing transactions as easy as playing video games, where competitive traders, brokers and recruits chat with each other at the times compete among their selves.
Click the link below for a sneak preview Top Traders rankinghttp://www.topsteptrader.com/Leaderboard.html
Common denominator for both is you have to gamble and take a high risk in order to get a higher gain or profit.
Meanwhile, topsteptraders new introduced Live Real-time market trading using (CBOT and CME floor traders-alike platform) which drive marketing transactions as easy as playing video games, where competitive traders, brokers and recruits chat with each other at the times compete among their selves.
Click the link below for a sneak preview Top Traders ranking
http://www.topsteptrader.com/Leaderboard.html
across the board, everyone i know who is serious about playing poker is an idiot. the walk around with glasses and these fantasies about playing this rediculous game to then go back to some gay job the next day broke…
i am and will forever be an entrepreneur, on the web and in real life. my time is valuable and i told myself a long time ago i would never let anyone control my time for anything near “a salary and health benefits”. i live the life i want to live, and i do what i want with my time when i want. the biggest problem i have in my live is contemplating whether or not to sell one of the businesses and go live in another country that isnt full of presumptuous idiots that dont know they themselves are the suckers…
poker is for idiots… why do you think all the honk rednecks and cowboys were always depicted playing it…bunch of drunk dirty bastards…
across the board, everyone i know who is serious about playing poker is an idiot. the walk around with glasses and these fantasies about playing this rediculous game to then go back to some gay job the next day broke…
i am and will forever be an entrepreneur, on the web and in real life. my time is valuable and i told myself a long time ago i would never let anyone control my time for anything near “a salary and health benefits”. i live the life i want to live, and i do what i want with my time when i want. the biggest problem i have in my live is contemplating whether or not to sell one of the businesses and go live in another country that isnt full of presumptuous idiots that dont know they themselves are the suckers…
poker is for idiots… why do you think all the honk rednecks and cowboys were always depicted playing it…bunch of drunk dirty bastards…
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Liquidity is one of those funny things that no one really cares about until they really need it – then they’re damn glad it’s there. http://www.dearpurses.com/
Liquidity is one of those funny things that no one really cares about until they really need it – then they're damn glad it's there. http://www.dearpurses.com/