Oil…Apple…Cloud

In the big scheme of the last 10 years it makes sense that Exxon $XOM is the largest company in the world and Apple $AAPL is the second largest.

That said, Apple has passed some amazing companies to get into second spot and really are not far from top dog.

Apple sells personal and computer electronics to a fraction of the world while Exxon is a Global 130 year old oil company. That’s mind blowing. Everything Apple, builds, ships and sells is made possible by oil.

What does this say about the potential for Apple, what does this say about the future of oil?

Is Peak oil in process cutting into Exxon’s long-term value?

In a stable market it would seem that Apple should pass Exxon in the next year and those that argue Apple can grow based on law of large numbers will be proved wrong.

It seems to me that Apple will take over and hold top spot for years to come.

It would be cool to see the next number 3 Company emerge as a cloud company to bring things full circle from the underground (oil) to the open sky ‘cloud’.

It will probably be Facebook.

Disclosure – Long Apple

49 comments

  1. T-Bird2252 says:

    Howard take a couple min. and view this video from a TV station in Jackson, Ms. Something strange is happening with their crops…Do not know if there is a correlation with BP…

  2. Mark Essel says:

    Oh man not Faceplant, the biggest human bot net in the world.This value path needs work:People -> Their Attention -> Money in Facebook owners pocketshow about People -> Build Shit that works -> Money in their pockets

    ps wtf do I know. My startups not worth 15e9 like Zucks. Maybe bot netting people isn’t extreme enough…

  3. Mark Essel says:

    Oh man not Faceplant, the biggest human bot net in the world.

    This value path needs work:
    People -> Their Attention -> Money in Facebook owners pockets

    how about
    People -> Build Shit that works -> Money in their pockets

  4. T-Bird2252 says:

    Howard take a couple min. and view this video from a TV station in Jackson, Ms. Something strange is happening with their crops…Do not know if there is a correlation with BP…

  5. Joseph A says:

    what about food and beer companies ? you would think they’re somewhere up there..
    i laiiikke!

  6. Joseph A says:

    what about food and beer companies ? you would think they're somewhere up there..
    i laiiikke!

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  10. Strategy Pony says:

    The Great Stallion & Mare in the sky teach us that all that grows must mature and then one day die. AAPL is a great company with great products but they’re still in this proprietary mode with their own formats, which is like inbreeding your DNA and will lead to weakness one day. Oil is sexy, baby oil that is!

    • appl will undoubted;y have trouble right when the most shareholders own
      it…like now. i use momentum and management not timing but i know we are
      near a top

  11. Strategy Pony says:

    The Great Stallion & Mare in the sky teach us that all that grows must mature and then one day die. AAPL is a great company with great products but they're still in this proprietary mode with their own formats, which is like inbreeding your DNA and will lead to weakness one day. Oil is sexy, baby oil that is!

  12. ivanhoff says:

    If the current trends continue, Apple – the company, seems unstoppable. There are more stores to be open around the world, there is market share to be won.

    At some point Apple will become a victim of its own growth. Apple is still considered a niche company, which justifies charging higher margins. Just recently it has begun to lower the price of some of its products so they can become affordable to more people. This strategy will expand if Apple cares about sales and profit growth. Such an approach will eventually turn its products into commodity, where the main selling point is price. The first adopters of Apple products are proud of the fact that they are a minority. As more and more people join the club, paying the price to be a member will become increasingly unjustified. You just can’t please everyone. There is a long time to go until this occurs and the growth potential is still tremendous – still a very small % of the population owns Apple’s products.

    Regarding AAPL – the stock, it is in an uptrend, it is an institutional stock, the management always provides conservative guidance; 2 new products were recently launched and it seems like they are selling better than expected. All of the above factors guarantee that AAPL is likely to beat the estimates in the next 2-3 quarters, which is means that there will be catalysts to support higher price. Of course no company can grow with the same fast pace forever. At some point the stock market will discount expectations for growth that are unsustainable. Timing this point is just futile.

  13. ivanhoff says:

    If the current trends continue, Apple – the company, seems unstoppable. There are more stores to be open around the world, there is market share to be won.

    At some point Apple will become a victim of its own growth. Apple is still considered a niche company, which justifies charging higher margins. Just recently it has begun to lower the price of some of its products so they can become affordable to more people. This strategy will expand if Apple cares about sales and profit growth. Such an approach will eventually turn its products into commodity, where the main selling point is price. The first adopters of Apple products are proud of the fact that they are a minority. As more and more people join the club, paying the price to be a member will become increasingly unjustified. You just can't please everyone. There is a long time to go until this occurs and the growth potential is still tremendous – still a very small % of the population owns Apple's products.

    Regarding AAPL – the stock, it is in an uptrend, it is an institutional stock, the management always provides conservative guidance; 2 new products were recently launched and it seems like they are selling better than expected. All of the above factors guarantee that AAPL is likely to beat the estimates in the next 2-3 quarters, which is means that there will be catalysts to support higher price. Of course no company can grow with the same fast pace forever. At some point the stock market will discount expectations for growth that are unsustainable. Timing this point is just futile.

  14. appl will undoubted;y have trouble right when the most shareholders own
    it…like now. i use momentum and management not timing but i know we are
    near a top

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