The summer is over. There is not much good about that. The Lindzon’s had a great summer and though I love my work, a lot of the job depends on the mood of others.
I prefer everyone to be happy.
The mood of the country has a tendency to sour in the fall. Could just be the weather, maybe it’s back to school expenses or the daunting task of seasonal gift giving, but the bears love to come out in the fall. I blogged in August that to beat the fall rush, the doomsayers now come out in August.
To be fair to the bears, the markets definitely stalled in August.
In September, the hedge funds and ‘experts’ will be leaning in. Look at Japan – a lean in dream for shortsellers.
My fear shows up in higher cash balances as I continued to lighten up in stocks.
The one chart that sums up my inkling that the next few months could be tough is this one from Ryan Dietrick, an awesome contributor on Stocktwits.
My partners and clients know that I don’t chase hero status. I LEAN conservative. September has me conservative for now.
Sales calls, getting the kids acclimated to high school stresses, early jewish holidays and business travel will keep me busy in September and until I get some better mood signals from the market I will stay light.
Chime in with what has you leaning in…
Howard, your market feel seems to spot on at the moment. Noticing little interest in the higher-yield plays despite the bond market getting some of its mojo back. That tells me the Wall Street cowboys may be all trying to pile in the high-beta faves. This could portend some volatile periods ahead in the short-term. It’s a game we have seen forever, traders loving the names where valuations don’t matter, they sell them high, valuations suddenly matter again and stocks tumble, smart traders come back in and do it all over again.
years of watching. that said, always prepared to be fooled. thanks