The easiest way to get back to blogging is to go back to my roots…stocks and trends. Good or bad I will start blogging more market thoughts for a while to get back in the blogging mode.
The Top 5 stocks in this weekends IBD 100 are Netflix $NFLX (I am long), Chipotles $CMG, Baidu $BIDU , MercadoLibre $MELI (I am long) and Lulu Lemon $LULU.
Sometimes the market just makes sense. If you peel back the layers, these really are the best 5 business models of the last 12-36 months and likely in 3 years still the leaders in their categories (not a stock price predictor unfortunately).
If you owned these fab 5 stocks for the last 12 months you would be a ‘guru’ and a CNBC regular (the downside). If you owned these 5 stocks you would be globally diversified across many different industries – China, Internet, Latin America, Search, Web Video, High End Retail, Fast Casual Restaurant. If you owned a little gold $GLD (I am long) for America’s demise you had/have kickass portfolio with 6 stocks.
If you asked 1000 random stock investors for the stock symbols or business descriptions for these, you would have a funny ‘Man on the Street’ episode for Jay Leno or my old Wallstrip.
Why are these stocks ripping despite high PE’s and a shitty global market environment?
Unfortunately, I don’t have the answer to the power of momentum. Stocks overshoot to the upside and the downside.
As I explained on today’s ‘Momentum Monday’ show , Netflix continues to rock higher because the only argument against it is ‘they can’t win’. It’s too competitive…Apple will compete, Amazon will compete. That’s the same argument Netflix has faced forever. Fact is that Netflix on the iPad is the future. AND, the best hedge against Netflix is not Apple or Amazon, but Coinstar $CSTR.
Lulu Lemon continues to win because they are the ‘Facebook of ladies behinds’. Women love the way they look in LULU. Case closed. LULU is unchallenged by anyone in this growing space and the fact is at 126 stores, this trend is early.
Winners go unnoticed because people are looking for winners on the losers page when in fact the biggest winners come from the winners page.
In addition to all the good stuff you just wrote, each company has a cool name!
Enjoyable read. Thanks, Howard!
Cheers!
Frank
you are welcome
“Winners go unnoticed because people are looking for winners on the losers page when in fact the biggest winners come from the winners page.” i know this isn’t the first time you’ve voiced this kind of sentiment, but again, it’s one of the most important and yet most difficult to teach lessons of the market.
by the way – is “Facebook of ladies behinds” LULU’s official slogan?
it is my slogan
much like etoro (forex) is zynga for men!
they should pay you and adopt it as their own. although they’ve clearly shown that they can make a good campaign themselves:
“http://www.lululemon.com/community/blog/why-we-love-the-gusset/”
“say no to camel toe.”
mentionining ‘camel toe’ is indeed ballsy although that scares offf the men.
facebook of ladies behinds is better.
‘The ass social graph’ from lulu lemon should be next where each pair they
sell has a location tag so we can tracke women :)
Lululemon should not even try to appeal to men. At least not with the same brand. Unisex in high-end niche clothing is hard to sustain success.
Start from a niche and then gradually broaden the concept to reach more people. It will kill the brand in the long-term, but it will be a source of tremendous earnings growth for a few years.
In addition to all the good stuff you just wrote, each company has a cool name!
Enjoyable read. Thanks, Howard!
Cheers!
Frank
“Winners go unnoticed because people are looking for winners on the losers page when in fact the biggest winners come from the winners page.” i know this isn't the first time you've voiced this kind of sentiment, but again, it's one of the most important and yet most difficult to teach lessons of the market.
by the way – is “Facebook of ladies behinds” LULU's official slogan?
it is my slogan
much like etoro (forex) is zynga for men!
you are welcome
they should pay you and adopt it as their own. although they've clearly shown that they can make a good campaign themselves:
“http://www.lululemon.com/community/blog/why-we-love-the-gusset/”
“say no to camel toe.”
mentionining 'camel toe' is indeed ballsy although that scares offf the men.
facebook of ladies behinds is better.
'The ass social graph' from lulu lemon should be next where each pair they
sell has a location tag so we can tracke women :)
i like that
Lululemon should not even try to appeal to men. At least not with the same brand. Unisex in high-end niche clothing is hard to sustain success.
Start from a niche and then gradually broaden the concept to reach more people. It will kill the brand in the long-term, but it will be a source of tremendous earnings growth for a few years.
The biggest price trends are based on social trends. Fundamental cycles don’t just end overnight. Price volatility is always much bigger than fundamentals’ volatility. This is why momentum works.
i like that
The biggest price trends are based on social trends. Fundamental cycles don't just end overnight. Price volatility is always much bigger than fundamentals' volatility. This is why momentum works.
“Winners go unnoticed because people are looking for winners on the losers page when in fact the biggest winners come from the winners page.”
Sounds like a concise definition of traditional value investing there: looking for winners on the losers’ page.
Awesome – i've been waiting for some new posts here.
Good post. Keep em coming, stock or otherwise.
Awesome – i’ve been waiting for some new posts here.
Good post. Keep em coming, stock or otherwise.
“Winners go unnoticed because people are looking for winners on the losers page when in fact the biggest winners come from the winners page.”
Sounds like a concise definition of traditional value investing there: looking for winners on the losers' page.