I have been painfully sick for the last month or so and not quite sure why. At 44, if it’s not a heart problem or cancer, you are relieved so after a few blood tests and x-rays over the last 60 days, I just gave it up to old age.
With the shortness of breadth and a nasty cough that had quickly developed the last two weeks, I finally just sat down at my doctor and said find out what it is and fix me. She is pretty sure it’s pneumonia and there are no shortcuts for me getting better. It does feel good to have an attack plan TO get better.
A few weeks ago I blogged about ‘SHMOmemtum’.
If you don’t have a plan when you own stocks, weak markets will punish you. They will slowly take all your money. I sense a lot of SHMOmentum investors are getting stuck right now. Retail is the culprit. I have been wary of retail for weeks on my ‘Momemtum Monday ‘ show and will take another look tomorrow.
Our markets are sick and quickly becoming pathetic.
The ‘Flash’ Chrash which was quickly dimissed into a dark corner of finanace has already had the lows broken. In essence, the ‘Flash’ Crash was possibly the ”Flash Foreshadow’ Crash.
Like I sat with my doctor and said fix me, we are at that stage right now for global markets. Printing money is an insult. Begging for spending makes me want to spend even less.
Without major policy changes, gold, volatility and bonds will dominate the headlines.
For entrepreneurs it means get the product done faster, find customers now, kiss some ass and manage the burn.
Do not wait for the panic calls.
Will have none of that here – bah!
A Trader’s Guide to Courage (and the first bullish rant here in some months):
http://tinyurl.com/2cw8cdl
>> For entrepreneurs it means get the product done faster, find customers now, kiss some ass and manage the burn. <<That has always been good advice. Public or private firms. Forget non standard deviations like “first mover advantage” … and focus on basics like getting the trains to run on schedule. You know, olde fashion “do what you said you would do” and hit those projections.
Man, hope you get better soon. Being optimistic, that’s probably more likely than the market healing soon.
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Feel better — we need you here!
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CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
Howard…feel better….balance and health are everything.
Crazy times we live in. So I guess PE’s have shrunk from
25 to 12 in the last 10 years……whats to say they won’t shrink
to 6-8? Its all bullshit. We are going to de-leverage another LEH.
You can feel it in the air. Always has to be a bag holder, and a haircut taker.
Along the way we will see huge money printing and devaluation.
Its all getting jiggy right now…..Now Iran gonna give the flotilla an escort.
EU scolding Israel whilst trying to get their house in order.
BP and USA fighting Biblical Scale disaster in Gulf. (Can’t believe Oil isn’t spiking? Very Strange)
GOLD A CROWDED TRADE?
I Don’t think so…..ask anyone you know if they own the stuff? Nobody? Its a very weird
asset class. Christ the ads alone creep me out…everyone of them.
My broker asked me “Why does that guy on TV want to sell you his Gold if its so Great ….I said to him why do you want to sell me these Mutal Funds?
Good to always have u around on my blog. Thx
CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
“So I guess PE’s have shrunk from
25 to 12 in the last 10 years……whats to say they won’t shrink
to 6-8?”
They most likely will, though might another 6-10 years or more for valuations to bottom out. Multiple compression is the engine of secular bear markets. The forecast calls for pain.
Will have none of that here – bah!
A Trader's Guide to Courage (and the first bullish rant here in some months):
http://tinyurl.com/2cw8cdl
Man, hope you get better soon. Being optimistic, that's probably more likely than the market healing soon.
VC market is sick too … feel better soon!
VC market is sick too … feel better soon!
>> For entrepreneurs it means get the product done faster, find customers now, kiss some ass and manage the burn. <<
That has always been good advice. Public or private firms. Forget non standard deviations like “first mover advantage” … and focus on basics like getting the trains to run on schedule. You know, olde fashion “do want you said you would do” and hit those projections.
You are not that old considering what you have achieved. Try to do a bit more exercise, it usually make people feel better.
I am pondering on your transition from market to entrepreneurs getting to market sooner. Can you elaborate it more?
Feel better — we need you here!
Howard…feel better….balance and health are everything.
Crazy times we live in. So I guess PE's have shrunk from
25 to 12 in the last 10 years……whats to say they won't shrink
to 6-8? Its all bullshit. We are going to de-leverage another LEH.
You can feel it in the air. Always has to be a bag holder, and a haircut taker.
Along the way we will see huge money printing and devaluation.
Its all getting jiggy right now…..Now Iran gonna give the flotilla an escort.
EU scolding Israel whilst trying to get their house in order.
BP and USA fighting Biblical Scale disaster in Gulf. (Can't believe Oil isn't spiking? Very Strange)
GOLD A CROWDED TRADE?
I Don't think so…..ask anyone you know if they own the stuff? Nobody? Its a very weird
asset class. Christ the ads alone creep me out…everyone of them.
My broker asked me “Why does that guy on TV want to sell you his Gold if its so Great ….I said to him why do you want to sell me these Mutal Funds?
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CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
When a corporation is sick (overleveraged), there is a clear plan of action called financial restructuring – wiping out the shareholders and turning the creditors into owners. The end result is a corporation with healthy balance sheet. When it comes to sovereign debt, such restructuring is not possible. You cannot wipe shareholders (taxpayers) out – increasing tax rate doesn’t necessary lead to higher tax receipts. You cannot turn creditors into new equity holders. There are only two options: 1) partial default, under which creditors agree to take their losses now; 2) monetization, under which creditors agree to take their losses gradually over time. After certain tipping point of leverage, there is no other option. The question is, are most banks able to withstand another wave of credit writedowns?
Howard, I am confident that you’ll get better soon. You are a fighter and smart enough to know when to seek help. Take care and start to lead a healthier life style. It matters.
When a corporation is sick (overleveraged), there is a clear plan of action called financial restructuring – wiping out the shareholders and turning the creditors into owners. The end result is a corporation with healthy balance sheet. When it comes to sovereign debt, such restructuring is not possible. You cannot wipe shareholders (taxpayers) out – increasing tax rate doesn't necessary lead to higher tax receipts. You cannot turn creditors into new equity holders. There are only two options: 1) partial default, under which creditors agree to take their losses now; 2) monetization, under which creditors agree to take their losses gradually over time. After certain tipping point of leverage, there is no other option. The question is, are most banks able to withstand another wave of credit writedowns?
Howard, I am confident that you'll get better soon. You are a fighter and smart enough to know when to seek help. Take care and start to lead a healthier life style. It matters.
Good to always have u around on my blog. Thx
CEO of StockTwits.com and founder of Socialleveragellc.com
You are not that old considering what you have achieved. Try to do a bit more exercise, it usually make people feel better.
I am pondering on your transition from market to entrepreneurs getting to market sooner. Can you elaborate it more?
“So I guess PE's have shrunk from
25 to 12 in the last 10 years……whats to say they won't shrink
to 6-8?”
They most likely will, though might another 6-10 years or more for valuations to bottom out. Multiple compression is the engine of secular bear markets. The forecast calls for pain.
Howard, hope you feel better soon.
Re investing, I’ve got a plan I’ve been acting on. I blogged about it a couple of weeks ago in more detail, but, in a nutshell, this is what I’ve been doing:
During the cyclical bull rally that peaked in April:
– Unloaded some long positions into the rally to raise cash.
– Bought some OTM index puts when they were cheap.
Since then:
– Adding short positions, using trailing stops to limit losses and let winners run.
Right now, I’m about 60% cash, 20% long, and 20% short.
Howard, hope you feel better soon.
Re investing, I've got a plan I've been acting on. I blogged about it a couple of weeks ago in more detail, but, in a nutshell, this is what I've been doing:
During the cyclical bull rally that peaked in April:
– Unloaded some long positions into the rally to raise cash.
– Bought some OTM index puts when they were cheap.
Since then:
– Adding short positions, using trailing stops to limit losses and let winners run.
Right now, I'm about 60% cash, 20% long, and 20% short.
It is tough to have a plan when the definition of reality that determines the larger paradigm is in constant motion. In order for us to plan there has to be an acceptance of the facts as they are and that may take awhile.
http://qedrealestate.wordpress.com/2010/06/07/goodbye-v-shaped-recovery/
It is tough to have a plan when the definition of reality that determines the larger paradigm is in constant motion. In order for us to plan there has to be an acceptance of the facts as they are and that may take awhile.
http://qedrealestate.wordpress.com/2010/06/07/g…
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you doctor will think it’s a very, very long shot, but I had similar symptoms and it turned out to be sarcoidosis. I’d at least raise that possibility with her. Best of luck.
thx
you doctor will think it's a very, very long shot, but I had similar symptoms and it turned out to be sarcoidosis. I'd at least raise that possibility with her. Best of luck.
thx