The Top Ten Reasons You Sold Stocks on March 9th, 2009

It’s a busllshit headline and I won’t really list top 10 reasons. They are a weak tool. David Letterman owns it and they should only be allowed for comedy and sarcasm. WorldWide Pants should sue every blogger using my headline.

But I digress…

I was checking out some price charts tonight after seeing that Black and Decker $bdk was purchased by Stanley Works $swk for a large premium. Black and ‘Freaking’ Decker was $70 in October 2008 and under $20 by march 2009. It will be near $60 on the open tomorrow. That’s a big swing for a bazillion dollar, boring tool company that has a brand name that EVERY American knows. That’s just one of a thousand stories.

I can live with (not forget) this type of miss, because I did not follow the likes of Dick Bove and his ‘Buy of the Century’ CNBC call on Citibank at $22 or so. I can’t forget glaring ‘asshattishness ‘ because I too was watching the Ocatabox a few times on CNBC. It was quite entertaining in a ‘train wreck’ kind of way. It cost me money. I have no one to blame but myself.

It’s exhausting to think about all the missed opportunities if you take investing seriously (I know…I am exhausted). It is exhausting to think people are not in jail for such ludicrous and irresponsible behavior and no NEW leaders in banking are emerging. I do know (hope) they should and likely will.

In hindsight:

It was an epic panic. It was relentless. We wet our pants. We shit the bed.

It was an epic run on the banks. The depression talk got to us.

It was an epic transfer of wealth that may just bury the United States.

No one can truly explain panic while it happens. We only have the benefit of hindsight. I am embarrassed to not be involved in the massive transfer of equity wealth that occurred starting in 2008. I am grateful that I survived financially. I imagine I was panicked about stocks as well, despite me buying and blogging it on March 9th from the Bahamas. Buying Russia and a few other big blunders put the fear of death into me back in 2008. I swung a few times and missed. I sold some stuff near the absolute bottom. I admit it.

I don’t believe any investor was left unscathed or unscarred. It was a horrifying collapse. Time seemed to stand still.

Our leaders are lying to us daily and it is insulting. The truth is being laughed at just SIX months later. Sixty plus percent rallies tend to do that to the negative people in the investing business. At some level it should.

The few that made big coin in the stock market – in an honest way – were those that honored price. They honored their stops on the way down through 2008 and they took their entries on the way up starting in March, 2009.

As exhausting as all the drama has been, it’s exciting to think about all the opportunities ahead in the capital markets for those that can learn to manage this simple discipline.

47 comments

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  3. ivanhoff says:

    why are you embarrassed? you caught some of the biggest highly liquid trends of the year: oil, silver, amzn. I am sure your investors are happy.

  4. tivoboy says:

    It was indeed scary, but being short the market worked for me at the time. Also, buying on the dip there especially C and BAC 2010 and 2011 call options for pennies is going to help a LOT!

  5. tivoboy says:

    It was indeed scary, but being short the market worked for me at the time. Also, buying on the dip there especially C and BAC 2010 and 2011 call options for pennies is going to help a LOT!

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  8. ivanhoff says:

    why are you embarrassed? you caught some of the biggest highly liquid trends of the year: oil, silver, amzn. I am sure your investors are happy.

  9. The best trade this year (quite frankly, it is what has made it possible for me to have a double digit return this year) was buying big names companies under $5 in the first and second quarter of 2009.

    There was a true threat that many companies would go to $0. But if you bought 50-60 of them it was a pretty good bet that they all wouldn't goto $0. So even if you lost a few companies to bankruptcy, once the threat was lifted, these stocks were going to take off and make up for any 50-75% losses.

    There were many profitable trends in 2009, such as going long gold. But I would say that it is almost impossible to have a really good 2009 without catching the buy big name companies under $5 in Q1-Q2 trend.

    This was my post from March 9, 2009. It somewhat goes with your follow the big trend concept. I've definitely had missteps since March. However, nailing this big trend was what mattered.

    http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/03/what-was

    It is fun to review your writings.For Q1, Q2 and part of Q3, the market went much higher than I thought it could. Yet, to a certain degree, this was balanced out by the fact that my “junk long” stocks went much higher than I thought they could. Sometimes they were up 40-50-60% in a day. For a while, that was common practice. If they went down 15%, it was like they were down 1.5%.

    People always talk about panic bottoms. We were all able to see the ultimate panic bottom.

    Look at Denninger from March 5th:

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/852

    “Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go “feral”; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.”

  10. ChartingStock says:

    Excellent Point About Overall Portfolio Risk Management Concerning “Honoring Their Stops On The Way Down” & “Took Their Entries On The Way Up”. StockTwits Does An Amazing Job Of Bringing Intelligent Trades To Traders World Wide As Opposed To The Majority Of “Noise” In The Broader Financial Media. Whatever Form Of Down Side Protection Traders Have, Whether It Be Options, Stops Or True Selling Discipline, These Methods Of Portfolio Risk Management Are Major Components Leading To Long Term Trading Success. These Vital Points Are Almost Never Mentioned In The “Main Stream” Financial Media & Yet They Are A Key Difference Between The Millions Of Traders Who Fail & Yet Still Watch CNBC, Versus The Many Traders Who Succeed. Keep Up The Great Work @StockTwits & Thank You For Bringing Intelligent Trading, Investing & Portfolio Risk Management To The Many Traders World Wide Who Hopefully Will Succeed In Part Due To StockTwits Great Work.
    Posted By @ChartingStock

  11. ben says:

    That comment was meaningless. It amounts to: Those who “made big coin in the stock market” were those who bought low and sold high. Gee, thanks for the tip.

  12. ben says:

    That comment was meaningless. It amounts to: Those who “made big coin in the stock market” were those who bought low and sold high. Gee, thanks for the tip.

  13. The best trade this year (quite frankly, it is what has made it possible for me to have a double digit return this year) was buying big names companies under $5 in the first and second quarter of 2009.There was a true threat that many companies would go to $0. But if you bought 50-60 of them it was a pretty good bet that they all wouldn’t goto $0. So even if you lost a few companies to bankruptcy, once the threat was lifted, these stocks were going to take off and make up for any 50-75% losses. There were many profitable trends in 2009, such as going long gold. But I would say that it is almost impossible to have a really good 2009 without catching the buy big name companies under $5 in Q1-Q2 trend.This was my post from March 9, 2009. It somewhat goes with your follow the big trend concept. I’ve definitely had missteps since March. However, nailing this big trend was what mattered.http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/03/what-was…It is fun to review your writings.For Q1, Q2 and part of Q3, the market went much higher than I thought it could. Yet, to a certain degree, this was balanced out by the fact that my “junk long” stocks went much higher than I thought they could. Sometimes they were up 40-50-60% in a day. For a while, that was common practice. If they went down 15%, it was like they were down 1.5%.People always talk about panic bottoms. We were all able to see the ultimate panic bottom.Look at Denninger from March 5th:http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/852…”Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won’t be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go “feral”; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.”

  14. ChartingStock says:

    Excellent Point About Overall Portfolio Risk Management Concerning “Honoring Their Stops On The Way Down” & “Took Their Entries On The Way Up”. StockTwits Does An Amazing Job Of Bringing Intelligent Trades To Traders World Wide As Opposed To The Majority Of “Noise” In The Broader Financial Media. Whatever Form Of Down Side Protection Traders Have, Whether It Be Options, Stops Or True Selling Discipline, These Methods Of Portfolio Risk Management Are Major Components Leading To Long Term Trading Success. These Vital Points Are Almost Never Mentioned In The “Main Stream” Financial Media & Yet They Are A Key Difference Between The Millions Of Traders Who Fail & Yet Still Watch CNBC, Versus The Many Traders Who Succeed. Keep Up The Great Work @StockTwits & Thank You For Bringing Intelligent Trading, Investing & Portfolio Risk Management To The Many Traders World Wide Who Hopefully Will Succeed In Part Due To StockTwits Great Work.
    Posted By @ChartingStock

  15. Mrs Buttons says:

    The few that made big coin in the stock market – in an honest way – were those that honored price. They honored their stops on the way down through 2008 and they took their entries on the way up starting in March, 2009.

    I think that’s overly simplistic – why not just employ a robotic then and not follow the markets? Perhaps that’s where it is headed – a totally mechanical unemotional exchange? I want to believe what you say, but if it were that easy, there would have been a lot more than a few. es, we learned from the experience both good and bad. We are more informed but also flawed. If the psychologists are right fear trumps greed which will make the struggle to earn back our losses ever the more challenging.
    good post and thought, Howard.

    Mrs Buttons

  16. Mrs Buttons says:

    The few that made big coin in the stock market – in an honest way – were those that honored price. They honored their stops on the way down through 2008 and they took their entries on the way up starting in March, 2009.

    I think that's overly simplistic – why not just employ a robotic then and not follow the markets? Perhaps that's where it is headed – a totally mechanical unemotional exchange? I want to believe what you say, but if it were that easy, there would have been a lot more than a few. es, we learned from the experience both good and bad. We are more informed but also flawed. If the psychologists are right fear trumps greed which will make the struggle to earn back our losses ever the more challenging.
    good post and thought, Howard.

    Mrs Buttons

  17. Mrs Buttons says:

    I am having a problem on stocktwits – how do I tag my comments so they go directly to stocktwits and not to twitter? I put the $ in front of the ticker, but I noticed many do not…and they post wiht no problem.. did I set up my account wrong on twitter? Can I set up a spearate account on stocktwits and not go thru twitter as a sign on? thanks

  18. Mrs Buttons says:

    I am having a problem on stocktwits – how do I tag my comments so they go directly to stocktwits and not to twitter? I put the $ in front of the ticker, but I noticed many do not…and they post wiht no problem.. did I set up my account wrong on twitter? Can I set up a spearate account on stocktwits and not go thru twitter as a sign on? thanks

  19. Mrs Buttons says:

    The few that made big coin in the stock market – in an honest way – were those that honored price. They honored their stops on the way down through 2008 and they took their entries on the way up starting in March, 2009.

    I think that's overly simplistic – why not just employ a robotic then and not follow the markets? Perhaps that's where it is headed – a totally mechanical unemotional exchange? I want to believe what you say, but if it were that easy, there would have been a lot more than a few. es, we learned from the experience both good and bad. We are more informed but also flawed. If the psychologists are right fear trumps greed which will make the struggle to earn back our losses ever the more challenging.
    good post and thought, Howard.

    Mrs Buttons

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  21. Mrs Buttons says:

    I am having a problem on stocktwits – how do I tag my comments so they go directly to stocktwits and not to twitter? I put the $ in front of the ticker, but I noticed many do not…and they post wiht no problem.. did I set up my account wrong on twitter? Can I set up a spearate account on stocktwits and not go thru twitter as a sign on? thanks

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