Everyone is out with their predictions for 2010 $twentyten and as usual, mine are just to assume most trends will continue. I like Amazon, Apple, Gold and Google because that is where the money is flowing. The right web, mobile, software and weapon stocks will also make you money. I never own airlines, even though we have three great ones flying our skies today (JetBlue, Southwest and Virgin) and I avoid hot ‘component plays’, generally semiconductors, who can shoot to the starts for a few quarters at a time.
Nobody knows the page 10 news that will disrupt the big trends moving our financial markets. Surprisingly, very few lists/predictions even mention the page 10 possibilities.
Here is what we know:
1. Apple, Google and Amazon are kicking ass and RIMM and Microsoft are sucking at their nipple but being carried along on growth in mobile and a global economy. To gamble outside this box is just speculating and unless you have inside information, you are just making investing harder.
2. The US has no dollar policy. The debt ceiling is THE MOON . It is page 10 and unfortunately….stuck. Trend chaging news would be a real change of policy and not something worth spending prediction time.
3. Housing can’t be saved with money. Exciting rallies may occur, but just look at the semiconductor index after the 2000 bubble and chill out. The government fiddles with demand issues, but supply is just as big a story
4. We know the fastest growing revenue sectors in the US are : 1. Internet Search; 2. Internet dating/matchmaking; 3. Tanks and armored vehicles (If you have money to invest and want growth, assume these won’t end in 2010 and just manage your risk).
5. Our Federal Government will backstop anything BIG financial that is still standing (Mish is always a great read).
6. America will get fatter AND unhealthier, despite ‘free’ healthcare and promises of weight loss without dieting . There are lot’s of stocks to catch this continuing trend.
7. It will get easier to start a web business, but harder than ever to build a brand and get attention.
What we don’t know 6 months out is how badly our government really slows us down or how many more sneaky taxpayer unfriendly maneuvers are unleashed. We don’t know how badly the state bankruptcy positions will alter migration patterns or the federal stance on all of the above.
We don’t know if IPO’s will return even though Paul Kedrosky says so in a well written piece . It is ridiculously expensive to be public and the page 10 news of 2009, is Russia is willing to do that service right now for Silicon Valley. I would bet on that trend over a resumption of the IPO trend.
The great thing about the stock market is you DO NOT have to call turns. You did not need to buy stocks on March 9th to have a banner year. You could have bought Google and Amazon mid November.
If you want to invest in the stocks market in 2010, focus on money management and the news won’t matter. I read Investor’s Business Daily once a week because it is the one newspaper that has NEVER missed a new leading stock. If a stock is a leader, they show up, generally without much fanfare on the front pages of the paper. There won’t be 100’s of articles about the company or stock, just a consistent picture of the numbers and the PRICE.
Tell yourself you won’t time the market. Tell yourself that you will only buy the best institutionally owned (not that they know anything) stocks and tell yourself you won’t let any stock take 15 percent or more away from your net worth. Follow Stocktwits Suggested Lists and I think you will see many reminders of these basic tenets through 2010.
I have had a great year of health and luck and hope you have a great 2010.
Howard, Good observations…I will only add one caveat…Expect the Unexpected!
Always. Page 10
i like your bet on the russians over the IPO market
in addition to the expense of running a public company, it causes you to do stuff to satisfy short term oriented wall street investors which is not always the best thing for a company, particularly a high growth company
Yep we had the once in a lifetime ipo market and we pissed it away ….
Do you think the lack of tech growth stock supply over the past ten years has helped the big tech growth stocks? Seems like capital that wants tech growth has to go to them
Yes and that will help with this 2010-2011 acquisition spree coming like adbe buying omniture etc….
great piece Howard. Thanks for all your insights. Your on top of the game. If you dont mind i always like to add my favorites: the trend in building out broadband highspeed internet access for all Americans. And the aggressive effort towards building sustainable alternative energy solar and wind. Governments usually get what they want.
great piece Howard. Thanks for all your insights. Your on top of the game. If you dont mind i always like to add my favorites: the trend in building out broadband highspeed internet access for all Americans. And the aggressive effort towards building sustainable alternative energy solar and wind. Governments usually get what they want.
Howard, Good observations…I will only add one caveat…Expect the Unexpected!
Always. Page 10
You did an exceptionally good job on this little essay, Howard. Kudos.
My only main divergence, advice-wise, is that I always enjoy trading the semis and have great, and easy, profits with them. They are my favorite sector long-term, as a matter of fact.
You did an exceptionally good job on this little essay, Howard. Kudos.
i like your bet on the russians over the IPO market
in addition to the expense of running a public company, it causes you to do stuff to satisfy short term oriented wall street investors which is not always the best thing for a company, particularly a high growth company
Yep we had the once in a lifetime ipo market and we pissed it away ….
Great piece, Howard. Tried my best to find a nugget to argue with but couldn’t. Even if we’re both idiots, it won’t matter with good risk management and openness to new emerging trends.
its a cool start on the data visualization for sure. takes the eyes of many
good traders and what they are doing.
Do you think the lack of tech growth stock supply over the past ten years has helped the big tech growth stocks? Seems like capital that wants tech growth has to go to them
Yes and that will help with this 2010-2011 acquisition spree coming like adbe buying omniture etc….
Great post Howard. What I like about these summary posts is that it helps you contemplate many issues on a macro level that people are focusing on in great detail, which enables you to begin thinking about how they all interrelate.
Question for ya – your point “4. We know the fastest growing revenue sectors in the US are : 1. Internet Search; 2. Internet dating/matchmaking; 3. Tanks and armored vehicles..”
Have you got any further info/links on this, or are they just off the top of your head? Because I’m working on something in Category #2 and it’d be helpful to review the information on internet dating/matchmaking.
Thanks.
i tried to finfd the link…IBIS reasearch.
thanks ;)
Great piece, Howard. Tried my best to find a nugget to argue with but couldn't. Even if we're both idiots, it won't matter with good risk management and openness to new emerging trends.
its a cool start on the data visualization for sure. takes the eyes of many
good traders and what they are doing.
Great post Howard. What I like about these summary posts is that it helps you contemplate many issues on a macro level that people are focusing on in great detail, which enables you to begin thinking about how they all interrelate.
Question for ya – your point “4. We know the fastest growing revenue sectors in the US are : 1. Internet Search; 2. Internet dating/matchmaking; 3. Tanks and armored vehicles..”
Have you got any further info/links on this, or are they just off the top of your head? Because I'm working on something in Category #2 and it'd be helpful to review the information on internet dating/matchmaking.
Thanks.
i tried to finfd the link…IBIS reasearch.
thanks ;)
thx gebby. appreciate the support.
I agree with you , but I dont want to bet with the government, just growth I can feel and touch and taste and UNDETRSTAND.
if you truly understand the catalyst and can manage risk and know your industry, you can invest in a bazillion ways.
yes, Howard. But it is my observation that governments get defense industries, oil industries, steel industries, cable industries, internet industries; whatever the society requires. they also get weak and strong currencies when they want them. You have helped me a lot. I will read page 10 more often.
i love the way CMG and SBUX are using technology. I recently learned there are no CMGs (using the app and confirmed with friends there) in New Haven. CMG is obviously still a huge growth story. Happy New Year!
thx gebby. appreciate the support.
I agree with you , but I dont want to bet with the government, just growth I can feel and touch and taste and UNDETRSTAND.
if you truly understand the catalyst and can manage risk and know your industry, you can invest in a bazillion ways.
I read your profile today and it was so good to me.i feel you are the only one missing in my entire life so i decided to stop on and let you know that i am interested to be a friend first.When the fight begins within himself, a man’s worth something
delete
I read your profile today and it was so good to me.i feel you are the only one missing in my entire life so i decided to stop on and let you know that i am interested to be a friend first.When the fight begins within himself, a man's worth something
delete
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yes, Howard. But it is my observation that governments get defense industries, oil industries, steel industries, cable industries, internet industries; whatever the society requires. they also get weak and strong currencies when they want them. You have helped me a lot. I will read page 10 more often.
i love the way CMG and SBUX are using technology. I recently learned there are no CMGs (using the app and confirmed with friends there) in New Haven. CMG is obviously still a huge growth story. Happy New Year!
Experts have talked about this before. How many times have you read about the importance of ‘adding value’ for your audience? How many times have you read about ‘building trust’ with your readers/prospects?
Many, many times. You know it well. Every marketing guru has spoken about this topic. I’m sick of hearing it. But it STILL bears repeating.
http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com
Experts have talked about this before. How many times have you read about the importance of ‘adding value’ for your audience? How many times have you read about ‘building trust’ with your readers/prospects?
Many, many times. You know it well. Every marketing guru has spoken about this topic. I’m sick of hearing it. But it STILL bears repeating.
http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com
After last post on marketing without search engines, I decided to follow up with a strategy you can use to get quality free traffic. One of the easiest ways to get visitors to your web site is to spend money. Nothing is more effortless then paying for traffic. But if you can’t afford it or don’t want to pay, there’s an equally simple but free way to get traffic: ad swaps.
http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com
After last post on marketing without search engines, I decided to follow up with a strategy you can use to get quality free traffic. One of the easiest ways to get visitors to your web site is to spend money. Nothing is more effortless then paying for traffic. But if you can’t afford it or don’t want to pay, there’s an equally simple but free way to get traffic: ad swaps.
http://www.onlineuniversalwork.com